Citi has cut its 12-month price forecasts for bitcoin and ether after abandoning its ETF inflow assumptions, pointing to stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weakening investor demand.
The Wall Street bank lowered its outlook for both bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), citing a sharp deterioration in exchange-traded fund inflows and fading expectations that U.S. regulatory progress will reignite interest from investors.
Citi now expects bitcoin to reach $82,000 in its base case, down from $112,000, while ether is forecast at $2,240, reduced from $3,175. It also now assumes zero net ETF inflows over the next year, reversing its earlier view that regulatory clarity would bring in fresh institutional capital.
At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $58,400 and ether around $1,570.
“The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12 months,” analyst Alex Saunders wrote in a Tuesday note.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, once the main driver of institutional demand since their 2024 launch, have recently seen significant weakness. In June alone, they recorded $4 billion in net outflows—the largest monthly withdrawal on record—after a 13-day streak of redemptions pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory.
The downgrade represents a sharp reversal from Citi’s earlier outlook, which assumed that U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would encourage broader adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has slipped, removing a key near-term catalyst.
Saunders added that ETF flows remain the primary force behind crypto pricing, with recent data showing investors reducing exposure to risk assets.
The report also highlighted growing concern that digital asset treasury (DAT) firms could become net sellers of bitcoin, a narrative amplified by recent actions from Strategy, even though actual sales have remained limited.
It noted that both bitcoin and ether continue to trade below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has increasingly rotated into AI-related equities.
Citi’s revised model assumes flat ETF flows in its base case. In a bullish scenario, stronger adoption from both retail and institutional investors could push bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. In a bearish case driven by recessionary conditions and ongoing ETF outflows, bitcoin could fall to $53,000 and ether to $1,094.
While the bank has become more constructive on U.S. equities overall—offering some indirect support via cross-asset correlations—it said macro strength alone is not enough to offset weakening crypto-specific flows.
Even so, Citi emphasized that ETF flows remain the most critical variable in its valuation framework, noting that any rebound in demand or unexpected regulatory progress could quickly alter the outlook.
