Here’s a tighter, more streamlined rewrite with a sharper news tone:
Bitcoin reclaimed the $62,000 level after June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000—far below the 113,000 consensus forecast. The downside surprise cut the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike from 64% to 54% on the CME FedWatch Tool, while pressuring AI-linked equities.
The key question now is whether this macro shift signals a durable bottom, or simply a temporary bounce within a market that has already dropped around 20% over the past month.
The U.S. Labor Department reinforced the weakness by revising April and May payrolls lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, indicating that earlier labor strength was overstated.
Bitcoin had dipped to $57,750 ahead of the release but used the data as a catalyst to rebound, pushing back above $60,000 alongside renewed demand for scarce assets.
Bitcoin News: Why the Jobs Miss Matters
Softer labor data typically reduces inflation pressure, weakening the Fed’s case for keeping rates elevated. This directly lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, while also increasing expectations for future liquidity expansion.
The Fed’s balance sheet remains at $6.73 trillion. While it has the capacity to purchase up to $40 billion in short-term Treasuries each month, that tool has yet to be activated—though it could become relevant if economic data continues to soften.
Gold echoed this shift, recovering part of its recent 8% decline. The move supports the view that markets are beginning to price in a less restrictive Fed rather than reacting to a short-term trade.
Meanwhile, oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude holding below $70 after signs of progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations reduced geopolitical risk premiums.
Equities moved in the opposite direction. The Nasdaq 100 erased three days of gains, led by heavy losses in chipmakers and AI hardware names. SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each dropped over 9% intraday, signaling deeper concerns about elevated valuations and a potential rotation of capital.
On-Chain Data: Signs of Market Exhaustion
Despite macro volatility, Bitcoin’s on-chain structure is showing signs of stabilization.
According to CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im, the realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, while the share of supply in profit has turned negative.
Historically, this combination has closely aligned with cycle bottoms, suggesting that selling pressure is largely exhausted at current levels.
However, these indicators do not provide precise timing. They suggest the market is near a floor, not that an immediate uptrend is guaranteed. Bitcoin’s prior rejection near $82,500 remains a key unresolved resistance level.
The metric is best viewed as a risk management tool—it reduces the probability of further downside but does not eliminate it.
A retest below $60,000 remains a realistic scenario, particularly if upcoming CPI data or Fed messaging turns more hawkish again. One weak jobs report alone is not enough to rule out additional downside.
