XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios—a gauge of how deeply holders are in loss—have fallen to around -45% and -47%, levels Santiment says are the lowest on record. Some traders interpret such extreme losses as a contrarian buying signal.
On-chain data indicates XRP holders are, on average, more underwater than ever before, a condition often seen as a potential floor for prices.
The signal is derived from the MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio, which compares XRP’s current price to the average price at which its tokens last changed hands.
When the ratio drops below zero, it shows that the typical holder is holding at a loss. With both short-term and long-term MVRV deeply negative, recent buyers and those holding for longer periods are facing significant unrealized losses.
Santiment said the combined readings are at historic lows for XRP.
This typically reflects a capitulation phase, where investors absorb heavy losses and weaker hands exit, selling to buyers willing to accumulate at lower levels. Santiment described the setup as a risk-reward opportunity rather than a definitive bottom signal.
“The strongest setups often appear when sentiment is at its weakest,” the firm noted, adding that much of the downside may already be priced in. Still, it warned that prices could decline further if broader market conditions worsen.
Despite these depressed metrics, XRP has moved higher, gaining roughly 8% over the past week to trade near $1.14, according to CoinDesk data, placing it among the stronger-performing major tokens.
The trend mirrors a broader pattern highlighted by on-chain analysts, where large bitcoin holders continue accumulating even amid record ETF outflows—behavior typically associated with late-stage sell-offs and accumulation phases near cycle lows.
However, this does not confirm a bottom. MVRV indicates how stretched losses are, not when a reversal will occur, and such conditions can persist while prices drift sideways or lower.
What the data does suggest is that selling pressure from loss-making holders may be largely exhausted, shifting focus to whether sustained buying demand can drive the next move.
