Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s head of global macro, describes the current setup as an accumulation phase, though he cautions that a clear trigger for a rebound hasn’t emerged yet.
He says bitcoin is slowly drifting toward the lower boundary of a long-running model he has relied on for years.
That framework is built on a power law, mapping bitcoin’s full price history on a logarithmic scale with three bands: an upper resistance line, a mid-range trendline, and a lower support line that has historically captured every major bottom since 2015.
In his latest view, the support level sits near $58,000, while bitcoin—trading around $62,700—is approaching that zone.
The lower band is where Timmer sees accumulation forming. It tracks how far bitcoin trades above or below its trendline, and the current deviation has dropped to about -56%, a level associated with past accumulation phases seen in 2018 and 2022. Similarly, the 52-week bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to roughly -100%, reinforcing the same signal.
Still, Timmer stops short of calling a bottom. He notes that the speculative premium that drove bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely faded, global liquidity growth is slowing, and there’s no clear catalyst for a turnaround until liquidity conditions improve.
In his view, bitcoin may hover near this support range for an extended period rather than rebounding quickly.
He also highlights that fast-moving capital has already rotated out of bitcoin—first into gold, and more recently into semiconductor stocks, which are now attracting the bulk of investor momentum.
