Cardano is trading at $0.158 as of July 17, down 1.39%, while derivatives markets lean bearish ahead of the Van Rossem hard fork. The long-to-short ratio has dropped to 0.58, and open interest has climbed 4% to $421 million over the past 48 hours.
A sharp divergence is emerging: traders are increasingly betting against ADA, but whales are accumulating at the fastest pace since 2023. This opposing positioning is building tension, pointing to a potentially strong move once the market breaks either way.
Van Rossem Hard Fork Goes Live July 18
The Van Rossem upgrade was approved on July 13 by Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) and Delegated Representatives (DReps). It is scheduled to activate on July 18 at 21:44:51 UTC at Slot 192,844,800.
Intersect has called on infrastructure providers to update their systems before the fork—standard practice that confirms the upgrade is progressing without delays.
The upgrade is expected to reduce execution costs on the network, making transactions and decentralized applications more efficient. It also lays the groundwork for the Leios upgrade, which aims to significantly boost transaction throughput by the end of 2026.
This broader roadmap context makes the current fork more than a standalone event, helping explain the strong whale accumulation ahead of activation.
Key Levels to Watch: $0.160 and $0.170
CoinGlass data highlights a major liquidity zone between $0.160 and $0.165, just above the current price. Another concentration sits near $0.167, aligning with resistance around $0.1709 on the daily chart.
These levels define the near-term outlook. A move below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations and push ADA toward $0.1465 support. On the upside, a break above $0.170 may force short sellers to cover, driving a stronger recovery as the fork goes live.
On the 4-hour chart, ADA has broken above a descending trendline from its early-July high near $0.195, but the move has not yet developed into a sustained rally.
The RSI stands at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, indicating a neutral-to-bearish trend. With no oversold conditions, the market lacks a clear support base and appears to be waiting for a catalyst.
Market Context and Outlook
Cardano’s previous major upgrade, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022, improved smart contract performance and network efficiency.
Van Rossem takes a different approach, focusing on cost reduction and preparing the network for future scaling through Leios. The governance process—now managed through Intersect with formal SPO and DRep approval—also reflects a more mature and transparent framework than in past upgrades.
The key question now is whether this stronger governance and technical progress will drive sustained buying after the fork, or if short sellers will use any upward move to increase bearish positions.
The liquidity cluster near $0.167 remains a critical level. A daily close above it would signal bullish momentum. As seen in past crypto events, the side controlling spot supply often determines the outcome, gradually overpowering derivatives positioning.
