Bitcoin is trading close to $65,000 as investors assess improving economic signals, interest rate expectations, and global risk factors. Positive comments from President Donald Trump regarding employment, inflation, and a possible Strait of Hormuz agreement have lifted market sentiment, but Bitcoin’s next direction depends on whether lower oil prices can push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower.
Labor market remains resilient
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 last week to 199,000, coming in below economists’ forecast of 202,000.
The four-week moving average fell to 198,750 from 203,250, keeping claims near levels historically associated with a strong labor market.
Investors are now awaiting Friday’s July Nonfarm Payrolls report. Recent payroll figures have shown more weakness than weekly unemployment claims suggested.
Economists expect July employment growth of 80,000 jobs, compared with 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to stay unchanged at 4.2%.
Fed’s Warsh signals possible rate increase
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to raising interest rates in September if inflation remains elevated and bond markets continue to weaken.
Warsh has pushed for changes in how the Fed communicates policy, criticizing its long-standing practice of guiding markets through hints, signals, and unofficial comments about future decisions.
His approach has created tension within the central bank, with critics questioning whether recent market volatility has been influenced by uncertainty around his leadership. Supporters argue that previous Fed policies played a major role in creating today’s inflation challenges.
People familiar with Warsh’s views said he acknowledged early communication mistakes, including failing to clearly reinforce his focus on price stability and creating uncertainty around how his longer-term reform plans could affect immediate policy.
However, he remains prepared to support higher rates if upcoming inflation data disappoints and bond markets face additional selling pressure.
SpaceX shares recover before major insider share release
SpaceX shares climbed 3.85% in premarket trading Thursday after recovering from the previous session’s decline.
The move came as the company’s first lockup expiration allowed as many as 911.5 million insider shares, valued at more than $100 billion, to become available for trading.
The stock has already fallen over 50% from its June peak of $225 and is trading below its $135 IPO price, suggesting investors may have already accounted for much of the potential selling pressure.
The key test now is whether the market can absorb the additional supply without another sharp decline.
Select altcoins outperform BTC
Bitcoin has remained mostly unchanged over the past week, but several smaller cryptocurrencies have delivered stronger gains.
MemeCore’s M token gained 24%, Pump.fun’s PUMP increased 20%, and Cardano’s ADA rose 15%.
The performance shows selective strength rather than a broad-based crypto rally. Gains concentrated in meme-related tokens also suggest investors remain cautious about the overall market recovery.
CLARITY Act expectations fade
Crypto markets have largely accepted that the CLARITY Act may not pass before the Senate’s August recess, according to Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group.
The bill aims to establish clearer U.S. crypto regulations by dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC and defining rules for exchanges, issuers, and certain DeFi activities.
With the legislative window narrowing, traders have reduced expectations for passage. Prediction markets have also lowered the odds of approval in 2026.
Kruger said regulatory progress could continue through agency guidance even without congressional action, pointing to signals from SEC Chair Paul Atkins as a possible alternative path.
He identified $67,300 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for Ether as important resistance points. A move above those levels could indicate a stronger market recovery.
SoftBank’s Intel gains reinforce AI investment trend
SoftBank reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, helped by a major gain from its Intel investment.
The company posted ¥347.3 billion ($2.3 billion) in net income, boosted by a ¥1.3 trillion ($8.5 billion) increase from Intel shares after the stock surged during the quarter.
The results suggest AI-related investments are still producing returns, although gains remain concentrated among a small number of companies.
Bitcoin has continued to behave as a high-risk asset tied to broader technology and AI sentiment, benefiting when investors become more willing to take on risk.
Coinbase expands stock trading for U.K. customers
Coinbase has introduced U.S. stock trading for eligible users in the United Kingdom, allowing customers to buy and manage selected American equities alongside their cryptocurrency investments.
The service includes extended trading hours, commission-free transactions, and fractional share purchases. Users can fund their accounts using British pounds or USDC.
The rollout began on August 6, 2026, with availability expanding gradually among eligible users.
Bitcoin ETFs attract fresh inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $626 million in net inflows over three consecutive days, putting them on track for their strongest weekly performance since early May.
Analysts said continued ETF demand will be crucial for confirming whether Bitcoin’s recovery has lasting momentum.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, said several more days of consistent inflows would be needed to confirm a meaningful return of institutional demand.
Bitcoin holds range as macro optimism improves
Bitcoin traded around $64,830 on Thursday, gaining 0.8% over the previous 24 hours and 1.3% over the week. Ether rose 2.1%, while most major cryptocurrencies remained relatively flat.
The recent support for Bitcoin has come mainly from improving macro expectations rather than renewed crypto-specific buying.
Trump’s remarks on strong employment, stronger manufacturing activity, easing inflation, and a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement have improved investor sentiment.
A reopening of the shipping route could reduce oil prices, ease inflation concerns, and potentially push Treasury yields and the dollar lower—conditions that typically benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, the scenario depends on several developments happening together. Lower oil prices must reduce inflation expectations, which would then need to pull down real yields and weaken the dollar.
Bitcoin’s connection with equity markets also means broader investor risk appetite may have a greater influence than crypto-specific factors in the short term.
Traders are closely watching real yields and the dollar. A decline in both alongside weaker oil prices could give Bitcoin room to break higher, while persistent yield strength may keep BTC confined near the $65,000 level.
