Markets stayed mostly calm ahead of the July U.S. inflation figures, with bitcoin trading around $64,000, crude oil near $90 and Harmony recovering from a newly reported exploit.
Crypto assets showed limited movement on Wednesday as traders weighed the Harmony incident while positioning ahead of the U.S. CPI release, a major economic indicator that can influence risk appetite.
Harmony, a layer-1 blockchain focused on DeFi applications and digital marketplaces, said its network was exploited during the early Asian session. The attacker created roughly 4 billion ONE tokens through empty blocks, amounting to approximately 26% of the circulating supply.
Around 2.8 billion of the newly minted tokens were transferred to exchanges soon afterward, sending ONE down as much as 40% to a fresh record low.
Traditional markets were similarly subdued before the July CPI data, which was scheduled for 12:30 UTC. Brent crude remained close to $90 a barrel after additional Houthi attacks on shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and a U.S. strike on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman heightened concerns about possible supply disruptions.
Bitcoin largely shrugged off the developments, rising 0.23% since midnight UTC to about $63,900. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 38.
Derivatives Positioning
Crypto futures show little movement, but taker sentiment turns negative:
Aggregate futures activity has remained broadly unchanged, with trading volume and open interest showing only minor fluctuations. Beneath that calm, however, traders have become more defensive. Short positions now make up 51.36% of taker activity, marking a clear reversal from the bullish positioning seen earlier in the week.
AVAX comes under stronger short-selling pressure:
Avalanche’s AVAX ranked among the weakest performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past day, even as its open interest rose 6%. Falling prices combined with increasing OI point to continued bearish pressure. Its 24-hour CVD was also the weakest among major assets, suggesting aggressive short selling through market orders.
DOGE leverage reaches an eight-month high:
Dogecoin futures open interest has climbed beyond 17.2 billion tokens, its highest level since October. OI has risen substantially from roughly 12 billion tokens in June, despite DOGE remaining close to $0.07. The growing leverage during a period of sideways trading could leave the market vulnerable to a sudden volatility spike.
Trading interest in BTC and ETH remains subdued:
Positioning across the two largest cryptocurrencies remains relatively light. Bitcoin futures open interest is below 750,000 BTC, extending a period of weak momentum that has lasted several weeks. Ether is experiencing a similar lack of activity, suggesting major market participants are largely staying on the sidelines.
Selling pressure spreads across major altcoins:
Most of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies posted negative 24-hour CVD readings, signaling persistent selling activity. Chainlink, Cronos and Tron were among the few major tokens showing stronger buying pressure.
Bitcoin options signal limited expectations for a CPI shock:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility indicator, BVIV, has eased to 37.5% from Monday’s 38.66% peak. One-week implied volatility has also remained low, suggesting options traders are not anticipating a major price reaction following the inflation release. That subdued positioning may leave the market exposed if the data surprises investors.
Traders target $70,000 while preparing for a major move:
The $70,000 bitcoin call remained the most traded contract on Deribit for the second day in a row. At the same time, demand for BTC strangles has increased, showing that some options traders are preparing for a sizable move without committing to either a bullish or bearish direction.
Token Activity
CRV remains the week’s top performer:
Curve’s CRV has climbed approximately 35% over the past seven days and is trading near $0.28. The gains come as the protocol approaches a planned 15% cut to annual token emissions. CRV is also up more than 3% since midnight UTC.
UNI drops despite a lack of clear catalyst:
Uniswap’s UNI declined more than 10% over the past 24 hours, with no specific trigger immediately explaining the move. The sharp drop underscores the vulnerability of altcoins when liquidity and order-book depth are limited.
Monero erases its Tuesday decline:
XMR gained 5.8% since midnight UTC, recovering all of the losses it suffered during Tuesday’s session.
AI tokens show renewed strength:
NEAR, FET and TAO all moved higher, posting gains ranging from 1.3% to 2.3%. The advances indicate that investor interest in AI-linked crypto assets may be gradually returning after a prolonged period of weaker sentiment.
