In today’s Bitcoin news, BTC is trading around $63,500, down roughly 0.6% over the past 24 hours as the market remains stuck in a narrow range. Attention has shifted toward corporate Bitcoin treasury activity after a large Metaplanet wallet transfer sparked concerns about a potential sale.
Metaplanet, the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, moved 5,014 BTC worth about $322 million between its custody addresses during a 24-hour period beginning Wednesday. The transaction quickly triggered speculation that the company could be reducing its Bitcoin holdings.
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich dismissed the concerns, explaining that the transfer was simply a routine custody operation. He confirmed that the company did not sell any Bitcoin and continues to hold 43,000 BTC.
The transaction reportedly cost only around $8 in network fees, demonstrating how large Bitcoin transfers can be completed on-chain at very low costs without interacting with exchange order books.
Although Gerovich’s clarification removes concerns surrounding Metaplanet’s latest wallet activity, it does little to change Bitcoin’s broader market outlook. Macroeconomic developments remain a more significant influence on BTC’s direction, while investors are likely to keep an eye on other corporate Bitcoin holders for similar movements.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Can BTC Break Higher?
Bitcoin’s recent price action near $63,770 reflects a market that remains in consolidation rather than establishing a decisive trend. Trading volume has remained relatively subdued, suggesting that investors are waiting for a stronger catalyst before pushing the market in either direction.
The $63,373 area has emerged as an important near-term support level. A sustained move below that level could expose BTC to additional downside, while a recovery above $64,000 accompanied by stronger volume could strengthen the bullish setup and open the door to a retest of recent highs.
In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could break through $64,000 as increased buying activity attracts momentum traders and forces short sellers to cover their positions.
A neutral outcome would see BTC remain between roughly $63,300 and $64,000 as traders digest corporate treasury developments and await fresh macroeconomic data.
On the downside, losing the $63,373 support could weaken the current structure and send Bitcoin toward previously established support zones.
Prediction Markets Favor Deeper Bitcoin Decline Over $100K Rally
Meanwhile, prediction-market traders have become considerably less optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year. Kalshi currently gives BTC only a 1.6% chance of reaching $100,000 or more in 2026, compared with a 91% probability seen in January.
Expectations for a move to $90,000 have also fallen sharply. The probability dropped from 71% in early May to about 2.5%.
Traders are assigning greater odds to a significant decline instead. Current market pricing suggests a 20% chance that Bitcoin falls below $45,000 and a 15% probability of dropping under $40,000.
The growing activity around Bitcoin price forecasts comes as BTC continues to struggle through an extended period of weakness. Market analyst Alessio Rastani has predicted that Bitcoin could eventually fall to $20,000 by the end of 2027 before experiencing a strong recovery.
However, not everyone expects another major crypto downturn. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has argued that Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of negative developments—including Strategy’s BTC sales and delays to the CLARITY Act—could be evidence that the crypto winter is nearing its end.
