Bitcoin began September with a modest decline, falling about 1% to below $78,000 as the cryptocurrency entered its historically weakest month, often dubbed “Rektember.”
Since 2013, September has produced Bitcoin’s poorest average performance, with BTC declining roughly 3% on average and recording only five positive monthly finishes.
Recent performance provides a counterpoint to that trend. Bitcoin has posted gains in each of the last three Septembers. However, following a 25% surge in August — its biggest monthly gain since November 2024 — the market could now be heading toward consolidation or a potential correction.
Macroeconomic conditions are also creating fresh challenges. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took a hawkish stance in his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, stressing ongoing inflation risks. The remarks contributed to selling across global bond markets, with several sovereign yields reaching new highs for the current cycle.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.784%, while traders placed the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Sept. 16 meeting at about 66%. Markets are also considering another increase later in the year, potentially bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% by year-end.
Higher rates tend to pressure speculative assets by tightening financial conditions and making dollar-denominated assets more attractive. Bitcoin has not escaped that pressure, while gold also fell more than 2% Tuesday.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain a concern. Continued U.S. military strikes against Iran have added to instability in the Middle East, helping push WTI crude nearly 2% higher over 24 hours to around $88 per barrel, its highest price since late July.
Traditional financial markets have also historically performed poorly in September. Since 1975, the month has been the only one to deliver a negative average return for the S&P 500.
Bitcoin therefore enters September facing a combination of seasonal weakness, elevated bond yields and rising expectations for tighter monetary policy, all of which could challenge the momentum built during its strong August rally.
