Bitcoin’s latest move above its 365-day moving average has strengthened a long-term technical signal, but AltcoinPro Research says the 200-day average remains the more important level for determining whether the trend can continue.
Bitcoin moved above its 365-day simple moving average on Sept. 22, when the indicator was around $80,900. It marked the first time the cryptocurrency had reclaimed the level after spending 310 days below it, according to Altcoin Pro founders Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku.
Historical data reviewed by Altcoin Pro showed bitcoin finished higher 12 months after each of the five previous instances in which it recovered the 365-day average following at least 90 days below the indicator. The gains in those cases ranged from about 59% to more than 1,400%.
The strongest increase occurred in 2012, when bitcoin was still a relatively small asset compared with today’s market.
Horst said the historical pattern should not be treated as a reliable forecast. When Altcoin Pro examined shorter periods below the moving average, it identified two unsuccessful breakouts. Bitcoin dropped approximately 27% within 90 days after the July 2018 signal and about 59% following the March 2022 breakout.
The September move is still notable, Horst said, particularly given the 310-day period below the average, but maintaining the breakout will be important.
While the analysts remain constructive on bitcoin over the longer term, they said the 200-day moving average provides a more useful gauge of the current trend.
According to AltcoinPro’s calculations, the 200-day average had climbed to roughly $70,800 by mid-September. Bitcoin was trading about 19% above that level before its modest decline over the previous 36 hours.
By comparison, the 365-day average was still moving lower and had not adjusted as quickly to bitcoin’s recent price gains.
The difference comes from how the indicators are calculated. Both averages track historical prices, but the 365-day measure incorporates a much longer period and therefore responds more slowly to changes than the 200-day average.
Horst and Zhuleku said the 200-day indicator had effectively signaled the market shift about three months earlier than the 365-day measure. In a market as volatile as bitcoin, that time difference can be significant.
Bitcoin also produced a golden cross on Sept. 8, when its 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day average. Although traders often view the pattern as bullish, its historical record as a standalone indicator has been mixed, with previous crosses failing to deliver sustained advances, CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reported.
AltcoinPro said the current golden cross is notable because it followed an extended period of trading below the 200-day average rather than emerging near a market high.
Bitcoin spent 293 days below the 200-day measure before reclaiming it, the analysts said. That compares with roughly 436 days below the indicator during the 2022-23 bear market.
Attention is now turning to bitcoin’s latest pullback and whether it will bring the price back toward the 200-day average, which could provide the next test of the current trend.
