The crypto market started Monday under pressure, leaving traders asking, “Why is crypto down today?” Total crypto market capitalization fell about 2% to roughly $2.9 trillion from Sunday into Monday, September 28, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin dropped toward $82,000 after briefly trading above $85,000. Ethereum hovered around $2,650, while XRP remained below $1.50, interrupting the market’s September recovery.
The decline comes as traders reassess a combination of oil prices, Treasury yields and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Trump-Iran dispute may have added to those pressures, but the broader market move cannot be attributed to the diplomatic development alone.
Hormuz Tensions Put Oil and Risk Assets in Focus
Iran proposed at the UN General Assembly that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened for seven days while fighting was paused to allow broader negotiations. Trump rejected the proposal.
Trump said Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon” and called for the conflict to end “very soon.” He also did not rule out further strikes before the November midterm elections. No additional military action had been confirmed at the time of publication.
The potential impact on crypto markets is largely linked to energy prices. WTI crude rose above $93 during Monday’s early session, while the Strait of Hormuz remains a key route for Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
A sustained rise in oil prices can add to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5% since the conflict began, creating another potential headwind for risk assets.
That combination could undermine some of the leveraged momentum behind Bitcoin’s move back above $85,000. Still, it does not establish that Trump’s rejection directly caused the latest crypto selloff.
Liquidations Rise Despite Greed in the Market
Crypto sentiment has not deteriorated at the same pace as prices. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained at 74, still classified as “Greed,” compared with 70 a day earlier and a week earlier.
The divergence suggests that the latest decline may be driven partly by leveraged positions being unwound rather than a broad collapse in market confidence.
CoinGlass data showed $330.18 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours involving 107,013 traders. Long positions accounted for $230.65 million, while short positions represented $99.53 million.
Bitcoin recorded $79.24 million in liquidations, followed by Ethereum at $51.93 million and XRP at $16.05 million. The largest individual liquidation involved a $6.54 million BTCUSDT position on Binance.
Fed Expectations Add Another Headwind
Federal Reserve expectations have changed significantly in recent weeks. CME FedWatch currently places the probability of a hike to 400–425 basis points at the October 28 meeting at 68.1%. The figure was 57.6% one week ago and just 17.7% one month earlier.
The combination of higher oil prices and a greater probability of tighter monetary policy has created additional pressure on cryptocurrencies. Oil-related inflation concerns could influence the Fed’s policy path, linking the energy and interest-rate factors more closely.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Face Key Levels
Bitcoin is currently confronting resistance around $84,800. Michaël van de Poppe said a move through that level could support a continuation toward $90,000.
Aksel Kibar has taken a different view, pointing out that Bitcoin’s weekly candle around $84,000–$85,000 does not yet resemble a decisive breakout. If the hesitation continues, the cryptocurrency could return to its previous trading range.
Ethereum remains above its rising 20-day moving average near $2,602. Its daily RSI is around 62, indicating firm momentum without reaching an overheated level.
The next major resistance for Ethereum is near $2,807. Losing the 20-day average could expose the price to $2,426, followed by the $2,265–$2,259 area.
XRP continues to face resistance between $1.50 and $1.60 after roughly six weeks of unsuccessful attempts to clear the zone. The range remains the token’s main technical barrier.
Economic Data Could Set the Next Direction
Markets will receive several important economic indicators this week. August personal income, consumer spending and the PCE price index are due September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The September employment report is scheduled for October 2, while an ISM manufacturing report is also due during the week.
PCE is closely watched because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. A stronger reading could reinforce expectations for an October rate hike, while softer inflation data could alter those expectations.
Developments around the Strait of Hormuz will also remain important. Any renewed diplomatic negotiations, a plan to reopen the shipping route or a ceasefire arrangement that reduces concerns about oil supplies could ease some of the current pressure.
For now, Bitcoin’s $84,800 resistance, Ethereum’s $2,600 support and XRP’s $1.50 barrier remain important levels. A sustained Bitcoin move above $84,800 would put $90,000 back on the radar, while Ethereum needs to hold around $2,600 to maintain its recovery structure. XRP remains constrained below $1.50 until a decisive breakout occurs.
