XRP Fails to Rally After SEC Case Dropped, Bearish Indicators Take Hold
Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially dropping its case against Ripple, XRP has struggled to gain meaningful upward momentum. While the legal victory initially fueled optimism, technical indicators now suggest that a bearish shift could be underway.
Following the announcement, one XRP enthusiast on X expressed frustration, saying, “You’re not bullish enough!” Many investors had hoped that removing this regulatory obstacle would spark a major rally, especially with growing speculation about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) and discussions about its potential role in the U.S. strategic reserve.
However, rather than surging higher, XRP has been stuck in a range between $2.30 and $2.50. While the token initially jumped 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, it has since failed to maintain its gains, raising concerns about a weakening trend.
Technical Signals Hint at a Potential Downtrend
Three-Line Break Chart Warns of Reversal
The three-line break chart, a tool designed to filter out short-term price noise and highlight key trend shifts, has printed a red bar on the weekly timeframe. Historically, the emergence of such a pattern has marked the beginning of prolonged bearish phases, as seen in the 2018 and 2021 market downturns.
MACD and Moving Averages Show Bearish Momentum
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a widely followed momentum indicator, has been printing deeper negative bars below the zero line—a sign that selling pressure is increasing.
Additionally, the 5-week and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed downward, further signaling that the current trend is shifting in favor of the bears.
Bollinger Bands Indicate Overextension
XRP’s Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility, expanded significantly due to the strong rally in late 2024 and early 2025. Historically, similar expansions have been followed by price corrections, suggesting that XRP may be at risk of another pullback.
What Needs to Happen for XRP to Reignite Its Bull Run?
For XRP to regain bullish momentum, it must break decisively above the key $3 resistance level—its high from March 2. A move past this level would invalidate the bearish setup and reestablish an upward trend.
While some analysts remain confident that XRP could reach $10 by the end of the decade, the immediate outlook remains uncertain. If bulls fail to push the price higher, further declines could be on the horizon.
