Galaxy Digital says Bitcoin could be entering a new accumulation phase, with improving technical signals, steady spot ETF purchases, and mounting U.S. debt concerns supporting the case for buying BTC despite its recent price weakness.
Bitcoin has struggled to extend its rally in recent weeks, trading around $80,000 and leaving investors divided over its next move. Some bearish market participants have warned that the slowdown could precede another sharp correction.
Galaxy, however, remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research, said the market downturn likely ended in June and that the cryptocurrency is now moving through a phase that has historically preceded major advances.
“We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Thorn wrote in a report titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC.”
Galaxy Digital was founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz. The New York-based financial services and digital asset infrastructure company trades on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY.
Thorn attributed the improving outlook to stronger price patterns, reduced selling pressure, and growing concerns over the U.S. government’s fiscal position. Together, he believes these factors make Bitcoin an attractive asset to accumulate.
Bitcoin Reclaims a Key Technical Indicator
At the time of Galaxy’s analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $80,000, approximately 38% above its June low below $58,000. However, BTC remained around 35% below its record high of more than $126,000. Returning to that peak would require a price increase of approximately 53%.
One of Thorn’s main arguments is Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-week moving average after remaining below it for 44 weeks. The cryptocurrency has posted five consecutive weekly closes above the indicator, strengthening his view that the market may have already reached its bottom.
Changes in investor positioning offer further support for this outlook. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME Bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week of Bitcoin’s record high. Several major trading firms also reduced their spot Bitcoin ETF holdings.
Thorn believes these shifts suggest that short-term speculative investors have largely exited, leaving the market with a healthier underlying investor base.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” he said.
ETF Demand and U.S. Debt Support the Outlook
Despite Bitcoin’s recent stagnation, institutional investors have continued accumulating the cryptocurrency through spot ETFs.
Galaxy reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs added approximately 87,000 BTC following the June low. The firm views this accumulation as evidence of renewed demand for Bitcoin exposure, particularly as arbitrage-driven activity has declined.
Macroeconomic concerns also feature prominently in Galaxy’s thesis. Rising U.S. government debt, persistent budget deficits, and increasing interest payments could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce asset with a fixed supply.
Thorn also pointed to changing investor preferences across the digital asset industry. Interest in stablecoins and tokenization has increased while attention toward Bitcoin has weakened, a pattern he says resembles sentiment near previous market lows.
Galaxy Warns of Potential Downside Risks
Galaxy acknowledged that its bullish outlook could be undermined by a broader market sell-off, disruption from artificial intelligence, or concerns about the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin’s security.
The firm identified $76,540 as a key technical level. If Bitcoin records a weekly close below that price and fails to recover above it within a month, the argument that the market has already bottomed would come under pressure.
Nevertheless, Galaxy believes the combination of improving technical indicators, sustained ETF accumulation, and growing U.S. fiscal risks favors a recovery toward Bitcoin’s previous all-time high.
