A Bitcoin whale has deposited 438.37 BTC, valued at $35.38 million, into Coinbase Prime, with the transaction highlighting a potential $15 million loss compared with the original purchase price. Arkham Intelligence tracked the transfer on October 28, roughly 16 months after the wallet withdrew 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271.
The transaction comes as Bitcoin struggles to deliver the October rally investors had anticipated. BTC is trading around $81,445, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours but still down 2.5% since the beginning of the month. With just three days remaining, Bitcoin needs to recover its monthly opening price to avoid ending October in negative territory.
The whale’s move has raised questions about whether large holders are preparing to sell and which upcoming events could determine Bitcoin’s next price direction.
Bitcoin News: Are Whales Moving Their Holdings to Exchanges?
The latest transfer shows that at least one large Bitcoin holder has moved funds to an exchange, although broader market data does not yet point to widespread selling.
The wallet, identified as bc1q9kaa…l77q, had been inactive since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. At 00:48 UTC on October 28, the address transferred 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit wallet, retaining 177.03 BTC, according to blockchain records.
Exchange deposits are often viewed as a possible indication of selling because they make cryptocurrencies easier to trade. However, the whale has not disclosed the reason for the transfer. Coinbase Prime also provides institutional services for lending and hedging, meaning the transaction does not necessarily indicate an imminent sale.
Broader exchange activity showed a different pattern on October 27. Preliminary CryptoQuant data recorded net Bitcoin outflows of 12,570 BTC, worth approximately $1.01 billion. This followed net inflows of more than 7,000 BTC on the previous day.
Analyst Darkfost also reported that Binance’s 30-day average of whale deposits had declined from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion. Retail deposits, meanwhile, have increased since September.
These contrasting trends suggest that large-holder activity remains mixed rather than indicating a clear, market-wide move toward selling.
Bitcoin Needs $83,624 to Finish October Higher
Bitcoin’s performance this month has disappointed investors, putting its historical October strength at risk.
BTC opened October at $83,624 on Binance before climbing to $87,220 on October 2. The rally subsequently faded, and the price dropped to $79,221 on October 24.
To finish the month in positive territory, Bitcoin must close above $83,624. From its current price of $81,445, that would require a gain of approximately 2.7%.
Failure to reclaim this level would give Bitcoin consecutive losing Octobers for the first time in more than a decade. October 2025 ended with a 3.9% decline on Binance, while the only other negative October performances since 2013 occurred in 2014 and 2018.
The final sessions of the month could therefore determine whether BTC stages a recovery or extends its recent losses.
Upcoming Events That Could Influence Bitcoin’s Price
Several economic and market developments are approaching, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision likely to be the first major catalyst.
– October 28 — Federal Reserve decision: The Fed’s statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. After September’s 25-basis-point rate increase to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability to rates remaining unchanged.
– October 29 — PCE inflation and earnings: September’s personal consumption expenditures inflation report follows the latest consumer price index reading of 3.7% year over year. Coinbase and Strategy are also scheduled to release their third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes.
– October 30 — Bitcoin options expiry: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options will settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for the expiry stands at 135,452 BTC, valued at approximately $11.04 billion and representing 34.4% of the platform’s total open interest. The put-call ratio is 0.53, while the max-pain level is $78,000.
– November 3 — U.S. midterm elections: The outcome could influence the direction of cryptocurrency legislation and the broader regulatory environment.
– December 9 — Federal Reserve meeting: Markets are already considering another rate increase, with Polymarket placing the probability of a December hike at 76.5%.
These events could influence investor sentiment, market liquidity, and Bitcoin’s volatility in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624?
Bitcoin remains above its 50-day exponential moving average but has yet to regain its October opening price. The next move will depend on whether buyers can build enough momentum to challenge nearby resistance.
BTC is trading slightly above its 50-day EMA at $80,833 after rebounding from the October 24 low of $79,221. Its 200-day EMA stands at $76,443, providing another technical level to monitor if the market weakens.
Resistance at $83,624: Bitcoin’s October opening price is the key threshold for restoring positive monthly performance. A sustained move above it would improve the near-term outlook.
Additional resistance at $84,898: This level marks the October 21 high, which preceded the latest decline.
Support at $79,221: The October 24 low remains an important support zone after holding through three further dips during the week.
A break above $83,624 could strengthen the recovery and help Bitcoin finish October in the green. However, a move below $79,221 would weaken the technical outlook and increase the risk of further downside.
