Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000 Despite $424M ETF Inflows Ahead of November

Bitcoin slipped beneath $80,000 even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $424 million over three consecutive trading sessions. The downturn followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, with two policymakers voting in favor of a rate increase.

On October 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three days. The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4%, but the split decision fueled uncertainty about the central bank’s next move.

BTC initially climbed to $81,788 following the announcement before reversing during Asian trading. A sell-off in semiconductor stocks weighed on technology markets and pushed Bitcoin down to $79,710 overnight.

Bitcoin was trading near $79,899, representing a 1.2% decline over 24 hours and a 4.4% loss for October. If the monthly decline persists, October will mark Bitcoin’s second consecutive losing October.

With November approaching, investors are monitoring the U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment reports, and expectations for the Fed’s December meeting. Prediction markets continue to assign a significant probability to another rate increase, potentially adding pressure to risk-sensitive assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Attract $424 Million Over Three Sessions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $424 million in combined inflows between October 26 and October 28, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) receiving the largest share.

SoSoValue data showed the following daily figures:

• October 26: $110.3 million in inflows, entirely directed to BlackRock’s IBIT.
• October 27: $176 million in net inflows, with all 12 funds avoiding net withdrawals.
• October 28: $137.3 million in inflows, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.

The three-day recovery followed a significant reversal on October 22, when the funds recorded $635.6 million in outflows—their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each experienced outflows exceeding $200 million.

ETF flows remained approximately $202 million negative through Monday. However, the subsequent inflows pushed October’s cumulative balance to roughly $110 million positive.

The 12 funds collectively held approximately $104.9 billion in assets, representing around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total value. Since launching in January 2024, they have attracted $57.6 billion in net inflows. IBIT alone accounted for approximately $66.1 billion in holdings.

Despite the recovery in institutional demand, Bitcoin’s price decline indicates that ETF buying has not been enough to overcome pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and weakness in technology stocks.

Fed’s Divided Rate Decision Weighs on Market Sentiment

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75%–4%, but the decision revealed disagreements among policymakers over the appropriate direction of monetary policy.

The vote passed 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack supporting a 0.25-percentage-point increase.

The central bank described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials indicated that additional economic data would help guide their next decision.

Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity about the December meeting, saying he did not favor forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also denied that political considerations had influenced the decision ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes reinforced concerns that another rate increase could remain on the table. According to the cited Polymarket figures, the probability of a quarter-point hike in December stood at approximately 77%, close to its pre-meeting level.

Bitcoin initially reacted positively. After trading near $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC advanced approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the following two hours.

The rally subsequently faded as semiconductor stocks came under pressure. Samsung’s chip division missed analyst expectations, and its shares fell more than 5%, dragging technology stocks lower.

Bitcoin then declined to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over 24 hours, intensifying market volatility.

Bitcoin News: Economic Events to Watch in November

The upcoming economic calendar could shape Bitcoin’s direction as investors reassess the likelihood of additional monetary tightening.

Key dates include:

• October 29: September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP figures, followed by Coinbase and Strategy earnings after the market closes.
• October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry, involving approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts valued at around $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
• November 6: October employment report, following September’s reported addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: October consumer price index report. September’s CPI increased 3.7% year over year.
• December 9: The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled interest-rate decision.

These developments could affect expectations for interest rates and broader investor appetite for risk assets. Higher rates can put pressure on Bitcoin by increasing the appeal of lower-risk investments, although market reactions will depend partly on how much of the expected policy path is already priced in.

Does Bitcoin Typically Rally in November?

Bitcoin’s reputation for strong November performance rests on a limited number of historical observations.

Binance data show that BTC posted gains in only three of the past eight Novembers. The largest advances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when Bitcoin climbed 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed U.S. presidential elections.

The two midterm election years in the sample produced negative returns. Bitcoin fell 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, the sample is too small to establish a dependable seasonal pattern. Both declines also occurred during broader bear markets, making it difficult to determine whether election timing played a significant role.

Options markets are not currently indicating expectations for an unusually large price swing. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks Bitcoin options’ implied 30-day volatility, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range observed over the preceding two weeks.

Historical performance therefore provides limited grounds for predicting another November rally. Economic data, institutional demand, and monetary-policy expectations may be more important drivers.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: $79,221 Emerges as Key Support

Bitcoin is testing a critical support area after moving below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

At around $79,899, BTC was trading beneath the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The price had crossed this level three times during the previous week, indicating continued uncertainty about the short-term trend.

The October 24 low of $79,221 remains the immediate support level to monitor. A sustained break below this price could expose Bitcoin to further losses.

The key technical levels are:

• Resistance: $84,898. The October 21 high, where the previous recovery stalled.
• Immediate support: $79,221. The October 24 low, which has served as the near-term price floor.
• Lower support: $76,264–$76,476. This zone combines the September 2 low with the 200-day EMA.

Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains relatively stronger. The 200-day EMA has climbed from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. The 50-day EMA also crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.

Nevertheless, the short-term outlook remains vulnerable while BTC trades below its 50-day EMA. A sustained move above $80,789 could help stabilize prices, whereas a break below $79,221 would shift attention toward the lower support zone.

Outlook: Can ETF Demand Support Bitcoin in November?

Bitcoin’s latest ETF inflows indicate renewed institutional buying following substantial withdrawals earlier in October. However, the return of capital has not been enough to keep BTC above $80,000.

The Federal Reserve’s divided decision, uncertainty over a possible December rate increase, and weakness in technology stocks continue to influence sentiment.

Traders will closely monitor the PCE inflation report and employment figures for signals about the Fed’s next move. Bitcoin’s ability to defend $79,221 will also be crucial in determining whether the current decline remains a temporary pullback or develops into a deeper correction.

Although Bitcoin has recorded substantial November gains in some years, historical patterns offer no guarantee of another rally. The cryptocurrency’s next move will likely depend on incoming economic data, ETF flows, and broader financial-market conditions.