BNB recorded a steep 8.7% hourly decline on Thursday as the reported $6.36 billion Binance security breach rattled investors and triggered a wave of selling. Unlike Bitcoin and several other major cryptocurrencies, BNB has struggled to regain momentum, while activity in the futures market points to growing bearish expectations. Traders are now watching whether the token can stay above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $692.
On October 29, BNB fell from $744.90 to $680 in approximately 60 minutes after hackers reportedly extracted around $6.36 billion from Binance. The incident has been described as the largest cryptocurrency theft in history.
The recovery that followed has been relatively weak. BNB is trading around $702, down 6.2% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $92.4 billion. The token also remains 48.7% below its October 2025 all-time high of $1,370.
Pressure is also building in the derivatives market, where negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are increasingly willing to pay to maintain their bearish positions.
Why Has the Binance Incident Hit BNB Harder Than Bitcoin?
BNB’s close association with Binance has made it particularly vulnerable to concerns surrounding the exchange. Because the cryptocurrency serves as Binance’s native token, negative developments affecting the platform can quickly influence investor sentiment toward BNB.
Since Thursday’s 20:00 UTC price, BNB has lost 5.6%, posting larger declines than Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin.
However, the reported exploit did not directly involve the BNB Chain. TRM Labs identified ten blockchain networks through which the attacker drained Binance wallets, including Ethereum and Polygon. The BNB Chain was absent from the list.
This suggests that the selling pressure is primarily connected to Binance’s exposure rather than a direct compromise of its associated blockchain. Investors are reassessing the potential financial and reputational consequences for the exchange, and BNB is absorbing much of that uncertainty.
Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said the incident had intensified selling throughout the cryptocurrency market, with BNB facing the greatest exposure. Rick Maeda of Laevitas provided a more measured interpretation, describing the token’s decline as relatively modest considering the potential scale of the theft.
Futures Traders Increase Bearish Bets on BNB
Trading activity on OKX suggests that derivatives participants are positioning for additional volatility following the sudden decline.
Three indicators highlight the changing market dynamics:
- Negative funding rates: BNB perpetual futures funding dropped from +0.01% before the incident to -0.0266% at midnight and -0.0434% by 08:00 UTC. Short sellers are now paying funding fees to long-position holders, while Bitcoin maintained positive funding during the same period.
- Rising open interest: BNB futures open interest increased approximately 20%, moving from $54.8 million to $66 million as traders opened additional positions after the sell-off.
- Long accounts remain dominant: The long-to-short account ratio climbed to 2.79 from 2.66 before the hack, indicating that more accounts are holding bullish positions despite the negative price action.
The combination suggests that many smaller traders are buying BNB at discounted prices, while other participants are betting on further declines.
Such positioning creates the possibility of a sharp move in either direction. A recovery could force short sellers to close their positions, adding buying pressure and potentially triggering a short squeeze. If the price continues falling, however, leveraged long positions could face increased liquidation risks.
Previous Binance Security Breaches: How Did BNB Recover?
BNB’s previous reactions to major Binance security incidents offer some historical perspective. On both occasions, the token experienced an initial decline before recovering over the following month.
May 2019: On May 7, hackers stole 7,000 BTC from a Binance hot wallet. BNB subsequently dropped 17.5% from its closing price before the incident, reaching $18.30 three days later. The token recovered strongly and was 39.2% higher one month after the attack.
October 2022: An attacker exploited a vulnerability in the BNB Chain bridge to mint 2 million BNB worth approximately $570 million. The token reached a low of $256.80 a week later, representing a 12.7% decline from its pre-incident closing price. After 30 days, BNB had gained 20.5%.
In the latest episode, BNB has fallen as much as 8.7% below its pre-hack level. While previous recoveries offer some encouragement, they do not rule out another downward move before market conditions improve.
The incident has also prompted comparisons with FTX’s FTT token, which virtually collapsed after the exchange failed in November 2022. However, there is an important distinction between the two situations.
FTX had misused customer assets and lacked sufficient funds to repay users. Binance, meanwhile, has pledged to cover the losses associated with the reported breach. Tether, Circle and other organizations also reportedly froze approximately $2.7 billion in stolen funds within hours.
Nevertheless, questions remain about how Binance will finance the compensation. The exchange has not disclosed its precise funding arrangements, while withdrawals remain suspended pending the reopening it expected within 48 hours of its Friday morning update.
BNB Price Analysis: $692 EMA Emerges as Critical Support
BNB is approaching an important technical decision point, with its 200-day EMA serving as a potential barrier against further losses.
The token finished Thursday’s session at $698.46, only slightly above the 200-day EMA at $692.46. During the initial crash, its price briefly dropped beneath this indicator after reaching $680, before buyers stepped in.
Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA at $733.06 is positioned above the current market price and could act as resistance during any recovery attempt.
The four-month price structure shows that BNB has returned to levels last recorded in late August. At that time, the cryptocurrency spent approximately two weeks consolidating between $674.60 and $726 before breaking out in early September.
The subsequent rally carried BNB to $809.99 on October 5. However, the latest sell-off has wiped out those gains, returning the token to its previous trading range.
For the immediate outlook, the $692 support area is particularly important. If BNB maintains its position above the 200-day EMA, buyers could regain confidence and attempt to push the price toward the $733 resistance region.
A sustained break below the indicator would weaken the technical outlook and potentially expose the next support at $674.60.
Over the coming 48 hours, Binance’s handling of the incident could become the biggest catalyst for BNB’s price movement. A successful reopening of withdrawals may restore confidence and place short sellers under pressure. Conversely, further delays or indications that the exchange intends to sell BNB to finance the reported losses could trigger another wave of selling and put $674.60 within reach.
