Bitcoin investment products have attracted approximately $424 million in fresh capital over three consecutive sessions, reflecting a return of institutional buying interest. Despite the renewed demand, BTC has failed to maintain its position above $80,000 following a divided Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The cryptocurrency initially moved higher after the announcement but reversed its gains as declining semiconductor stocks weighed on the broader market.
On October 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $137.3 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three days. The Federal Reserve also voted to maintain interest rates within the 3.75%–4% range, although two officials supported a quarter-point increase instead.
Bitcoin briefly advanced to $81,788 following the decision before falling to $79,710 during overnight trading. The decline coincided with weakness in technology shares after disappointing semiconductor earnings intensified selling pressure.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $79,899, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 4.4% for October. This performance puts Bitcoin on track for its second consecutive monthly decline in October.
With November approaching, traders are preparing for several potential catalysts, including the U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment reports, and the possibility of another interest rate increase in December. Prediction markets currently indicate a 79% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Bitcoin ETFs Record Three Consecutive Days of Inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a notable improvement in investor demand, attracting approximately $424 million across three trading sessions. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has captured the largest share of the recent capital inflows.
According to SoSoValue, the daily investment figures were:
- October 26: The funds received $110.3 million, with all inflows directed toward BlackRock’s IBIT.
- October 27: Total net inflows reached $176 million, with none of the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs reporting negative flows.
- October 28: Another $137.3 million entered the market, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.
The latest buying activity follows a significant withdrawal period. On October 22, investors removed approximately $635.6 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the largest single-day outflow since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each recorded withdrawals exceeding $200 million.
By October 26, October’s cumulative ETF flows remained approximately $202 million negative. However, the subsequent two sessions reversed the trend, bringing the monthly balance to roughly $110 million in positive territory.
The 12 investment products collectively manage approximately $104.9 billion in assets, representing around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Since their introduction in January 2024, they have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant product, holding approximately $66.1 billion in assets.
Bitcoin Falls Below $80K Following the Fed’s Split Decision
The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to maintain interest rates revealed disagreements among policymakers over the appropriate direction of monetary policy.
The decision passed with a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
In its accompanying statement, the central bank described economic growth as strong while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials also emphasized that future policy adjustments would depend on incoming economic data.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided offering a clear indication of what might happen in December. During his press conference, he said forward guidance was unnecessary outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also dismissed suggestions that political considerations influenced the decision, which came just six days before the U.S. midterm elections.
The two dissenting votes strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy. Polymarket’s December interest rate market assigned approximately 77% probability to a quarter-point increase, close to the level recorded before the announcement.
Bitcoin initially reacted positively, climbing from approximately $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET to $81,788 over the following two hours, representing a gain of around 1.1%.
However, the upward momentum faded during Asian trading. Samsung’s semiconductor division reported results below market expectations, causing its shares to decline more than 5% and dragging technology stocks lower.
Bitcoin subsequently dropped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. The broader cryptocurrency market also experienced substantial liquidations, with more than $350 million in leveraged positions wiped out over 24 hours.
Bitcoin News: What Could Influence BTC in November?
Several important economic releases and political developments are approaching, creating a potentially volatile period for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.
The upcoming events include:
- October 29: September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures and third-quarter GDP data are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Coinbase and Strategy will publish their earnings after the market closes.
- October 30: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options expiry involves approximately 135,700 BTC in outstanding contracts, valued at around $10.8 billion.
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections could influence investor sentiment and broader financial markets.
- November 6: The October employment report will provide additional insight into labor market conditions following September’s addition of 29,000 jobs.
- November 10: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for publication. September’s annual inflation rate reached 3.7%.
- December 9: The Federal Reserve will announce its next monetary policy decision.
November has historically been viewed as one of Bitcoin’s stronger months, although recent performance indicates that positive returns are not guaranteed.
Binance data shows that BTC recorded gains in only three of the previous eight Novembers. Its strongest performances came in 2020 and 2024, when prices increased 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed presidential elections.
The two midterm election years produced significantly weaker results. Bitcoin declined 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.
However, this historical comparison covers a relatively small sample, and both negative periods occurred during broader cryptocurrency bear markets.
Options market activity also points to relatively moderate expectations. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range maintained over the previous two weeks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Defend the $79,221 Support?
Bitcoin’s short-term technical outlook remains uncertain as the cryptocurrency continues trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
BTC is currently hovering around $79,899 on Binance, compared with its 50-day EMA at $80,789. The price has crossed above and below this indicator three times during the past week, highlighting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers.
The October 24 low of $79,221 represents the nearest important support level. Maintaining this price floor could help prevent another wave of selling as November begins.
The broader technical structure remains relatively constructive. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has increased from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first bullish crossover since November 2025.
The main technical levels to watch are:
- Resistance: $84,898 — Bitcoin’s October 21 high, where the previous upward move encountered selling pressure.
- Immediate support: $79,221 — The October 24 low and the first major level buyers need to protect.
- Lower support: $76,264–$76,476 — This range includes the September 2 low and the current 200-day EMA.
Despite the return of ETF inflows, Bitcoin remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations and movements in technology stocks. Renewed institutional buying could support a recovery, but macroeconomic uncertainty continues to limit bullish momentum.
The upcoming PCE inflation release and November 6 employment report will provide important clues about the Fed’s next move. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s ability to hold $79,221 and reclaim the 50-day EMA near $80,789 could determine whether BTC begins November with a recovery or faces another period of downside pressure.
