Bitcoin’s Calm Signals a Storm May Favor the Bulls — No Matter the Jobs Report Outcome
In a week dominated by macro crosswinds and political headlines, Bitcoin has quietly held its ground — and that silence could be bullish.
With the March U.S. jobs report due in hours, the crypto market finds itself in a moment of unusual clarity: regardless of whether the data confirms economic resilience or flags deeper weakness, BTC may still come out ahead.
Tariffs Reshape the Narrative
Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump stunned markets by announcing sweeping tariffs on imports from over 180 nations. The move sparked immediate fears of a trade-driven slowdown, effectively pushing traders to re-price the Fed’s 2025 trajectory toward deeper rate cuts.
So while hot jobs data would typically strengthen the dollar and weigh on Bitcoin, that old playbook may not apply this time. With new headwinds in place, many market participants view robust data as less relevant to the Fed’s likely path.
On the flip side, weak numbers would only strengthen the market’s conviction that rate cuts are coming, potentially lighting a fire under crypto prices.
Seller Fatigue in Plain Sight
Bitcoin’s resilience tells its own story. The asset briefly dipped below $82,000 on Thursday following tariff headlines but has since bounced back above $84,000. Importantly, prices have stayed well above the March bottom of $77,000, even amid peak uncertainty — a sign that selling pressure may be losing steam.
Volatility, too, remains measured. Volmex’s implied volatility index for BTC sits at 65% annualized, indicating an expected 3.4% move over the next 24 hours — suggesting potential action, but not chaos.
All Eyes on 12:30 UTC
Today’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is forecast to show 130,000 jobs added in March, a notable slowdown from February’s 151,000. Unemployment is projected to rise slightly to 4.2%, with hourly wage growth expected to hold steady at 0.3%.
Markets are already pricing in 100 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first likely in June — and BTC appears to be pricing in that future, too.
Conclusion: A New Macro Chapter
This isn’t just another jobs report. It’s a litmus test for how markets interpret macro data in the Trump tariff era. And right now, bitcoin is playing both sides of the coin — and doing it well.
