Oppenheimer Analysts Warn Tariff Volatility Will Continue to Pressure Coinbase’s Revenue Through 2025
Ongoing tariff uncertainties from former President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies are expected to keep retail cryptocurrency activity subdued, putting pressure on Coinbase (COIN) in the near term, analysts from Oppenheimer reported.
The investment bank has revised its full-year trading volume estimate down by 19%, now projecting $1.3 trillion for 2025. It also lowered its first-quarter forecast to $380 billion, reflecting a 13% decline from the previous quarter, driven by a broader pullback in investor risk appetite.
Although the U.S. government has shown more support for the crypto sector, including pro-crypto initiatives from the White House, Congress, and regulators, Oppenheimer analysts noted that the market has not fully responded to these changes yet.
“Since the election, we’ve witnessed an unprecedented amount of pro-crypto support from the administration, Congress, and various regulatory bodies, signaling a welcoming environment for blockchain businesses,” said Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau. “However, the unpredictable nature of Trump’s tariff policies has sparked fears of a potential recession, which has led to a pullback in retail trading and overall market hesitation.”
Coinbase shares have dropped 30% so far this year, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down by 10% and 8%, respectively. While this represents an improvement from 2022, when Coinbase’s stock plummeted by 86%, it still highlights the platform’s vulnerability to broader market forces.
Oppenheimer also reduced its revenue and earnings projections for 2025 and 2026 and lowered its price target for Coinbase to $279 from $388. The analysts pointed to the ongoing policy uncertainty as a reason for the expected subdued retail participation. Despite these changes, Oppenheimer kept its “outperform” rating on Coinbase’s stock, which saw a 1.2% decline to $173.39 on Wednesday.
On a more positive note, Coinbase continues to maintain a strong market share. The exchange accounted for 69% of the U.S. spot crypto trading volume in February, surpassing rivals like Robinhood (HOOD). However, sustaining this leadership will depend on how the broader market responds to tariff-related fears.
Despite the challenges in the short term, Oppenheimer remains optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term prospects.
“As a leader in the crypto sector, with growing opportunities in tokenization and payments, Coinbase is well-positioned for long-term growth. If tariff tensions subside, we expect the stock to rebound significantly,” Lau concluded.
