Novogratz: U.S. at a Fiscal Tipping Point as Bitcoin Signals Market Stress
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes the U.S. is entering a dangerous phase—where mounting debt, rising interest rates, and political turbulence are triggering the very conditions economist Hyman Minsky warned about decades ago.
In an interview with CNBC, Novogratz said the so-called “Minsky Moment” may have arrived. “We’re behaving less like a stable, developed economy and more like an emerging market,” he warned. “That should concern everyone.”
The bond market, he noted, is flashing red. Treasury yields are rising even as the U.S. dollar softens—an unusual and troubling combination. Meanwhile, Trump’s return to the political spotlight is adding uncertainty to an already fragile macro picture.
Although stocks are down around 10% year-to-date, Novogratz argued that the drop understates the magnitude of the risks. “We’re clearly in a risk-off mode,” he said, emphasizing that investors haven’t fully priced in the systemic changes underway.
Bitcoin, he said, is thriving in this uncertainty. “BTC tends to perform well when trust in traditional systems falters,” Novogratz noted. He highlighted two key narratives at play: a macro pivot into hard assets like gold and bitcoin, and a broader, long-term adoption trend. Importantly, bitcoin is beginning to move more independently from equities—suggesting it’s evolving into a more mature asset class.
Novogratz also sounded the alarm on America’s fiscal position. With over $35 trillion in national debt, small rate hikes now carry enormous consequences. “A 50 basis point move could cost the government more than entire agency budgets,” he said.
He stressed that the era of ignoring deficits may be over. “The market is starting to care again—and that shift could define the next chapter in global finance.”
