Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has plummeted to a six-year low, signaling a strong commitment from holders as the price stabilizes near $94,000.
ARK Invest has significantly raised its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast, now predicting the asset could reach as high as $2.4 million per coin. This adjustment comes after revising its view on Bitcoin’s active supply, excluding coins that are either lost or locked away long-term.
With Bitcoin recently trading at approximately $94,000, the revised bullish target represents a 60% increase from ARK’s original forecast in January 2024. This new projection implies a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. In the base case, Bitcoin is expected to hit $1.2 million (53% CAGR), while the bearish scenario puts it at $500,000 (32% CAGR).
David Puell, an analyst at ARK, based these revised targets on a model that examines Bitcoin’s potential for adoption across various industries. Key factors include Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value, increasing institutional involvement, its adoption as a safe-haven asset in emerging markets, as well as its integration into corporate and national treasuries. Additionally, Puell considers the rise of financial services being built directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Puell’s previous forecast in November 2024 projected Bitcoin would end the year between $104,000 and $124,000. Bitcoin closed out December at $93,440, hitting a record high of $109,000 in January 2025, before experiencing a pullback to lows near $74,500 earlier this month.
The latest rally has been fueled by a significant drop in exchange-held Bitcoin. Glassnode data reveals that the amount of BTC stored on exchanges has fallen from about 3 million in November 2024 to just 2.6 million today. This shift suggests that more Bitcoin is being withdrawn into private wallets, a strong signal of long-term holding behavior and a positive indicator for the market’s overall bullish sentiment.
