Carney Dominates Prediction Markets as Canada Heads Toward Election Day
With Canadians heading to the polls for the 45th general election, prediction markets have marked Mark Carney as the clear favorite to become the next Prime Minister. Carney, the Liberal Party’s candidate, has garnered an impressive 78% chance of victory on Polymarket, leaving Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre with just a 22% chance.
This aligns closely with the latest polling data, which shows Carney holding an 89% chance of winning, according to CBC’s aggregated polls. Other prediction platforms, like Myriad Markets, echo this sentiment, further cementing Carney’s status as the frontrunner.
Interestingly, FanDuel—a betting platform accessible only to Ontario residents—initially showed Poilievre as the frontrunner with a 70% chance of victory. However, recent adjustments to the odds now bring Carney’s chances to about 80%, reflecting the overall market consensus.
While U.S. elections often see the rise of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, Canada’s election has been more centered on traditional economic issues, such as inflation, trade policies, and job creation.
Rising Concerns Over Potential Market Manipulation on Polymarket
Despite its growing popularity, Polymarket has faced accusations of manipulation in the past, particularly during high-profile elections like the U.S. presidential race. Some analysts have suggested that large traders might influence market movements to sway public opinion.
In the current Canadian election, speculation arose regarding Poilievre’s odds being inflated on Polymarket. However, no definitive evidence of manipulation has emerged. Experts argue that while it’s possible to sway markets, the cost of doing so on a platform as large as Polymarket would be prohibitively high.
The Canadian election market on Polymarket has seen significant trading volume, with investors placing diverse bets on both candidates. No individual trader holds an outsized influence, indicating a balanced market.
One large bettor, “Tenadome,” has made a six-figure wager backing Carney, citing strong polling numbers and the fact that Poilievre would need an improbable error to win. According to Tenadome, a victory for Poilievre would require a polling discrepancy of at least 7 percentage points—something that’s unlikely.
“I’m confident Carney’s numbers are accurate,” Tenadome shared on X. “Poilievre doesn’t have a viable path unless there’s a massive polling mistake, which doesn’t happen often.”
Currently, the most successful trader on the platform is “ball-sack,” who has profited $124,890 from backing Carney. On the other hand, “biden4prez” has faced a loss of $98,000 after betting on Poilievre’s victory.
