As global markets fixate on every move from the Federal Reserve, Arthur Hayes believes the real story is unfolding elsewhere—at the U.S. Treasury.
In a recent interview with CoinDesk, the former BitMEX CEO offered a contrarian view: Federal Reserve policy is largely irrelevant in today’s macro environment. Instead, Hayes argues that the Treasury, under Secretary Scott Bessent, is quietly driving the direction of global liquidity—and by extension, the future price of Bitcoin.
“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes said. “Powell didn’t matter under Democrats, and he doesn’t matter now under Republicans.”
Bessent’s toolkit includes bond buybacks and auction mechanisms aimed at managing the U.S.’s rising debt burden. But in doing so, Hayes believes the Treasury is also injecting massive amounts of cash into the financial system—cash that must go somewhere.
And to him, the destination is obvious: Bitcoin.
“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That’s all that matters,” Hayes said.
A Deal with No Depth
Hayes also points to geopolitics as a major factor in his bullish thesis. With the U.S. and China reportedly nearing a trade deal, he sees more political theater than policy reform.
“It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to show he’s been firm. Xi needs to prove he didn’t back down.”
While the headlines may tout progress, Hayes argues the agreement won’t change much in practice. Instead, he sees the U.S. turning to subtler financial tools—like taxes on foreign investment—to rebalance global capital flows without disrupting domestic consumption.
The Quiet Rise of Capital Controls
Hayes believes the U.S. is heading toward a new form of capital control—not through sweeping legislation, but via small, surgical moves: higher taxes on non-U.S. holders of Treasuries, long-duration bond swaps, or withholding taxes on capital gains tied to American assets.
In short, tools that reduce foreign influence over U.S. debt markets while avoiding any direct hit to American consumers.
“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls,” Hayes said. “But you have to make it look like something else.”
The strategy is driven, he says, by a political reality that few are willing to challenge.
“Americans don’t want to be told to consume less,” he said. “So policymakers have to get creative.”
China Can’t Exit the Game
Despite tensions, Hayes argues that China has limited options when it comes to de-dollarization. While Beijing may talk tough, its economic dependence on the U.S. consumer remains intact.
“They have to obfuscate how much they’re buying… but mathematically, they just can’t stop,” Hayes said of Chinese purchases of U.S. assets.
Bitcoin: A Safe Harbor for the Overflow
As capital quietly sloshes around the system, Hayes sees Bitcoin as the ideal asset to absorb the excess. His portfolio mirrors this belief: 60–65% in Bitcoin, 20% in Ethereum, and the remainder in high-quality altcoins he believes offer real utility.
“We are in fundamentals season,” Hayes said. “People are tired of coins that don’t do anything.”
In an era where trust in financial institutions is eroding and governments reshape the system behind closed doors, Hayes sees Bitcoin as the most direct and durable response.
“The liquidity is coming,” he said. “And Bitcoin is where it’s going to land.”
