Bitcoin (BTC) is accelerating past gold (XAU) amid a surge in risk-on sentiment driven by a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations and a favorable technical setup.
Over the last two weeks, BTC has rallied nearly 19% to $104,000, while gold has fallen over 8% from its peak above $3,500 to $3,211. The shift reflects growing investor confidence and a retreat from traditional safe havens.
A key indicator of this trend is the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which tracks BTC’s value relative to gold. The ratio recently confirmed a bullish breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern—typically viewed as a strong reversal signal in technical analysis. This breakout suggests a transition from bearish to bullish momentum, favoring continued BTC outperformance.
Currently at 32.00, the ratio is on track to reach 35.00, based on a classic projection method that measures the depth of the pattern and applies it to the breakout point. The setup mirrors previous cycles where Bitcoin played catch-up and eventually surpassed gold during risk-on phases.
The macro backdrop is also shifting. Early Monday, the U.S. and China issued a joint statement agreeing to roll back tariffs on key goods. China will reduce tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period, while the U.S. plans to lower duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%.
“The tariff cuts could reawaken global risk appetite, with crypto among the primary beneficiaries,” said Mena Theodorou, co-founder of Coinstash. “This is the kind of macro shift that tends to fuel broad-based rallies in digital assets.”
Theodorou added that the timing aligns with other market-friendly developments, including new U.S. trade deals with the U.K. and a scheduled meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders to explore a ceasefire agreement.
With technical indicators aligning and global sentiment turning more constructive, Bitcoin appears primed to further distance itself from gold in the near term—marking a potential inflection point for risk assets heading into summer.
