Bitcoin’s Momentum Indicator Turns Positive, Backing $150K–$200K Price Targets
A key technical indicator known for forecasting major Bitcoin (BTC) rallies has recently shifted into bullish territory, supporting analysts’ projections of a price surge to between $150,000 and $200,000.
The indicator, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, reflects the difference between the MACD line and its signal line. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA of Bitcoin’s price, while the signal line is the 9-period EMA of the MACD line itself.
When the MACD histogram moves from negative to positive, it signals a shift from bearish to bullish momentum—a trigger widely recognized by traders as a buy signal.
Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly MACD has crossed above zero, indicating renewed strength in upward momentum.
This latest bullish shift follows Bitcoin’s rebound off its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), mirroring similar patterns observed in mid-2024 and early 2023, both of which led to significant price rallies.
For example, the MACD turned positive in October 2023, signaling the start of a major upward move that pushed BTC above $70,000 in November and on to record highs by December.
Over the past five years, the MACD has flashed bullish signals five times, with only one false alarm in March 2022 that temporarily misled traders.
This positive momentum aligns with the broader favorable macroeconomic backdrop. Earlier this week, Standard Chartered forecasted that rising institutional adoption could drive Bitcoin prices as high as $200,000.
Additionally, Bitfinex analysts told CoinDesk that Bitcoin is solidifying its role as a global macro reserve asset, with price targets between $150,000 and $180,000 anticipated for 2025 and 2026.
