Polymarket bettors are betting that Michael Saylor’s proposal to add bitcoin to Microsoft’s balance sheet will not gain approval from shareholders. Currently, there is only an 11% chance of the proposal passing, according to the betting odds on Polymarket.
On Polymarket, participants can wager on either the “Yes” or “No” outcome, with the correct prediction receiving a payout of $1 in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar), while the incorrect side receives nothing.
Earlier in October, the National Center for Public Policy Research urged Microsoft to consider adding bitcoin to its balance sheet as a way to diversify investments. However, Microsoft’s board recommended shareholders vote against the proposal, citing concerns about the volatility of cryptocurrencies and the unsuitability of such an asset for a company the size of Microsoft.
Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), whose company has seen its stock surge 455% this year, recently presented the idea to Microsoft’s board. Saylor suggested that bitcoin could be a valuable hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, potentially increasing Microsoft’s $3.2 trillion market cap to more than $8 trillion.
Saylor also criticized Microsoft’s current treasury practices, claiming that the company has “surrendered” $200 billion in capital over the last five years through stock buybacks and dividends, money that could have been invested in bitcoin, which has risen by over 1,200% during that time.
However, some Polymarket bettors are skeptical. A bettor who placed a $2,000 bet on the “No” side, known as Oxymirin, argued that Microsoft does not need to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet, as institutional investors already have multiple ways to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.
“They’re complicating things by mixing a safe investment like Microsoft with something as volatile as bitcoin,” Oxymirin stated.
Meanwhile, a bettor named titanlin, who placed a bet on the “Yes” side, believes Microsoft might allocate a small portion of its funds to bitcoin, given the company’s strong cash position.
“I think they may try a small allocation for testing. The company’s financial position is solid enough for this kind of experiment,” titanlin wrote.
Microsoft’s shareholder meeting is scheduled for December 10, where the proposal will be voted on.
