Bitcoin’s 50-Day Moving Average Hits Record High, But Momentum Shows Signs of Weakening
Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a critical technical indicator for market trend analysis, has surged past $104,000—reaching a new all-time high and breaking the six-figure barrier for the first time. While this milestone reflects underlying bullish sentiment, the contracting gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and the SMA signals a potential slowdown in upward momentum.
TradingView data reveals that the 50-day SMA recently eclipsed its previous peak near $99,300, recorded at the end of January. This moving average is widely used by traders to identify trend strength and key support or resistance levels.
Bitcoin’s spot price climbed to an all-time high exceeding $111,000 on May 22, propelled by robust inflows into spot ETFs and a strategic shift away from traditional U.S. assets. However, since that peak, the price has retracted to approximately $105,000, compressing the spread between the spot price and the 50-day SMA—a classic warning sign that the rally’s momentum may be waning.
This narrowing spread often precedes a price correction, with a pullback of 10% or more possible if buying pressure continues to diminish. Supporting this, on-chain data indicates heightened profit-taking activity among holders, reinforcing the technical caution.
The chart’s momentum indicator, which tracks the difference between the spot price and the 50-day SMA, remains positive but has steadily declined since the May 22 peak. Historically, a decreasing spread can foreshadow trend exhaustion and increased volatility.
Should a correction unfold, the 50-day SMA, currently positioned near $100,295, will likely serve as a pivotal support level to watch.
A similar scenario played out in late 2024 when the momentum peaked above $100,000, only to flip negative by February, triggering a multiweek sell-off that pushed Bitcoin down to around $75,000.
