Why mNAV Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story on Bitcoin Treasury Stocks, According to NYDIG
With more public companies racing to load Bitcoin onto their balance sheets, a popular valuation shortcut—modified net asset value (mNAV)—is coming under scrutiny. In a recent research note, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, argues that mNAV may mislead more than it informs.
“Relying solely on mNAV offers a shallow perspective. To understand what the market is really pricing in, you need to look at the equity premium to NAV,” Cipolaro writes.
What’s mNAV—and What’s Missing?
mNAV measures how much a company’s market cap exceeds its Bitcoin holdings. It’s often used to spot premiums—or discounts—on “Bitcoin proxy stocks.” But according to Cipolaro, mNAV fails to account for key balance sheet items like cash, debt, preferred equity, and the market’s confidence in a firm’s BTC accumulation strategy.
Enter the equity premium to NAV—a more comprehensive measure that considers total assets and liabilities. This metric, Cipolaro argues, better reflects investor sentiment and a firm’s potential to raise capital to buy more Bitcoin.
Trump Media and Semler Scientific: Undervalued?
In a breakdown of eight Bitcoin treasury companies, NYDIG found that Trump Media (DJT) and Semler Scientific (SMLR) posted the lowest equity premiums to NAV—at -16% and -10%, respectively.
That’s despite mNAV figures above 1.1x, suggesting the market may be underpricing their net Bitcoin-adjusted value. In contrast, stalwart MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to trade at a healthy premium, maintaining its position as the benchmark BTC corporate play.
Why It Matters
The equity premium isn’t just an accounting exercise—it’s a real-world signal of how much leverage companies have to expand their Bitcoin footprint.
“This premium is the fuel for Bitcoin treasury firms. It’s what lets them issue stock, raise capital, and keep accumulating BTC,” Cipolaro says.
As more firms follow the MicroStrategy model, understanding how much the market values (or discounts) their Bitcoin exposure will be key for active investors.
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