Coinbase: Bitcoin Set to Lead as Economic Momentum and U.S. Policy Clarity Improve
According to Coinbase Research, the second half of 2025 is shaping up to be a favorable environment for Bitcoin, driven by macroeconomic resilience, accelerating institutional adoption, and significant progress on crypto regulation. However, altcoins may remain under pressure unless specific catalysts materialize.
Macro and Market Dynamics Turning Positive
After a weak Q1, U.S. economic indicators have improved markedly. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now forecasts 3.8% QoQ growth, suggesting a rebound in activity. Easing inflation data and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have reduced recession concerns and lifted sentiment across risk assets, including crypto.
Coinbase notes that Bitcoin is particularly well-positioned in this environment due to its perceived role as an inflation hedge and store of value — especially as the U.S. dollar weakens and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated.
Altcoins Face Selective Demand
While Bitcoin stands to benefit broadly from macro trends, altcoins face a more nuanced path forward. Without specific developments — such as protocol upgrades, ETF approvals, or regulatory green lights — performance across the asset class is likely to diverge. Coinbase emphasizes that investor appetite is increasingly focused on assets with clear use cases and regulatory clarity.
Corporate Adoption Adds Tailwinds — And Risk
An increasing number of public companies are incorporating Bitcoin and other digital assets into their treasuries. This is supported by new mark-to-market accounting rules introduced in 2024. Still, Coinbase cautions that firms financing these strategies through convertible debt could be exposed to liquidity stress if refinancing becomes unavailable or market prices fall rapidly.
Legislative and Regulatory Clarity Emerging
Two key legislative efforts — the GENIUS Act (focused on stablecoins) and the CLARITY Act (defining SEC/CFTC oversight) — are gaining traction in Washington. Meanwhile, the SEC is evaluating over 80 crypto ETF proposals, with potential approvals expected between July and October. These include spot altcoin funds, staking-based ETFs, and diversified crypto index products.
Outlook: Bitcoin Favored, Altcoins Conditional
Coinbase concludes that the macro backdrop and policy environment favor Bitcoin in H2 2025, with ETF flows and institutional activity driving momentum. Altcoins, by contrast, will need stronger narratives and clearer legal standing to attract sustained inflows.
“With macro tailwinds, structural adoption, and clearer rules on the horizon, Bitcoin is well positioned,” the report states. “Altcoins may struggle without targeted catalysts or deeper regulatory certainty.”
