Polymarket Odds Slip on U.S.-Iran Clash as Trump Allies Float Possible Talks
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may be showing the first signs of easing in the eyes of traders, as betting markets adjust to new signals from Washington.
On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the chance of a U.S. military strike on Iran by June 30 fell sharply to 46%, after reaching nearly 67% overnight. The drop came amid reports that Donald Trump’s team is exploring diplomatic outreach to Tehran.
According to Axios, a meeting is under discussion between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The potential talks could focus on reviving a nuclear deal and reducing hostilities linked to the Israel-Iran conflict.
Still, not everyone on Polymarket believes diplomacy will win out. One user argued provocatively that, “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” signaling lingering support for military intervention.
Tensions escalated dramatically last Friday when Israel launched coordinated airstrikes and drone attacks on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, prompting Iranian retaliation. The market reaction was swift: Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to $102,750, safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen strengthened, and U.S. equities wobbled.
BTC has since clawed back ground, trading at around $106,700 as of press time, though S&P 500 futures remain down 0.7%, suggesting persistent caution among investors.
The Trump camp hasn’t formally addressed the Axios report. However, in a post late Monday on Truth Social, Trump reiterated his hardline stance, declaring that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon and calling for the immediate evacuation of Tehran.
