Crypto Market Eyes Fed’s Dot Plot as Rate Decision Nears
Markets widely expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its announcement scheduled for 18:00 UTC on Wednesday. Attention, however, has shifted to the Fed’s dot plot, which charts policymakers’ future rate projections.
Despite calls from President Donald Trump for lower rates, traders see little chance of an immediate cut. Instead, crypto investors are bracing for clues about the timing and scale of future easing.
“A dot plot with fewer than two cuts signals a stubbornly higher-for-longer stance,” said crypto trading firm XBTO. “A dovish shift could weaken the dollar and spark fresh crypto bids. Until then, the market waits.”
Geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation have kept bitcoin capped near $100,000.
“Rate cut forecasts for 2025 have dropped from 100 to 50 basis points,” said Matteo Greco, senior analyst at Fineqia. “If Middle East tensions escalate, further reductions could be limited to 25 basis points.”
While hawkish signals may pressure crypto near-term, rising debt servicing costs could strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term hedge.
