Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Holds Steady While Analysts Split on Outlook; Semler Scientific Targets 105,000 BTC by 2027
PLUS: Presto Research sees less risk in crypto treasury firms than many assume.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading above $104,500 early Thursday in Asia, maintaining relative stability despite growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the past week, BTC has slipped just about 2%, based on CoinDesk data, signaling that markets remain in a tight holding pattern.
But analysts disagree on whether this period of quiet reflects underlying strength—or signals potential trouble ahead.
Three new reports this week from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and trading firm Flowdesk all highlight similar conditions: low volatility, narrow price ranges, and subdued on-chain activity. Retail participation has dwindled, leaving institutional investors—ETFs, funds, and crypto whales—as the primary drivers of market flows.
Yet among those voices, CryptoQuant stands out with a stark warning.
In its June 19 report, CryptoQuant cautioned that bitcoin could slide back to $92,000—or even drop as low as $81,000—if demand remains sluggish. While spot buying continues, levels are well below historical trends. ETF inflows have dropped more than 60% since April, and whale accumulation has halved. Meanwhile, short-term holders, often retail newcomers, have sold roughly 800,000 BTC since late May.
CryptoQuant’s demand momentum indicator, which tracks buying pressure among key investor groups, has fallen to negative 2 million BTC—its lowest reading on record.
Glassnode, however, sees a different story.
In its weekly on-chain analysis, Glassnode acknowledged declining transaction counts, lower fees, and subdued miner revenues. Yet it argues that this lull might simply reflect a maturing market. On-chain settlement volumes remain significant but are concentrated in larger transactions, signaling greater institutional and whale activity.
Glassnode notes that derivatives markets now eclipse on-chain activity, with futures and options volumes exceeding spot by as much as 16 times. This shift, they suggest, has brought more sophisticated risk management and a steadier market environment—albeit one less driven by retail speculation.
Flowdesk, meanwhile, strikes a middle ground.
The France-based market maker describes the crypto market as “coiled, not cracking.” While altcoin flows have thinned and market-making volumes remain flat, Flowdesk sees pockets of strength. For instance, tokenized gold assets like XAUT have surged in volume, stablecoin growth is robust, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is gaining traction.
Flowdesk suggests low volatility might simply be a pause before the next big directional move—though not necessarily a move lower.
For now, uncertainty reigns. Even betting markets on Polymarket are divided, showing nearly equal odds that bitcoin could drop to $90,000 in June or rally to between $115,000 and $120,000.
What’s clear is that the ongoing tension between institutional accumulation and fading retail interest leaves the door open for sharp price swings in either direction.
Presto Research: Crypto Treasury Firms Are Not Just “Leverage Plays”
In a separate analysis, Presto Research released a report arguing that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs)—like Strategy and Metaplanet—are not merely leveraged bitcoin ETFs but represent a more sophisticated form of financial engineering, with potentially less risk than many believe.
Strategy’s recent $1 billion raise through perpetual preferred shares is a prime example of how bitcoin volatility can be leveraged beneficially. Financial instruments like perpetual preferred stock, convertible bonds, and at-the-market (ATM) equity sales allow CTCs to amass bitcoin without the margin risks that triggered past crypto collapses.
Presto points out that Strategy’s bitcoin is unpledged, and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured, meaning forced liquidations—the downfall of firms like Celsius and Three Arrows—are less likely here.
Yet risks remain. Presto warns that for these companies, the real challenge isn’t crypto volatility itself but managing dilution, cash flow, and precise timing of capital raises.
Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield” metric, measuring BTC per fully diluted share, highlights this focus on preserving shareholder value.
Handled properly, these firms can command NAV premiums similar to high-growth stocks in traditional markets. But a misstep could quickly turn their financial strategies from a boon into a burden.
Semler Scientific’s Bold Bitcoin Ambition
Meanwhile, Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has announced one of the most aggressive bitcoin accumulation plans in corporate history. The California-based medical device firm, which pivoted to a bitcoin treasury strategy last year, aims to grow its bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and a staggering 105,000 BTC by the close of 2027.
This would more than double Semler’s current stash of 4,449 BTC in the next 30 months.
The firm plans to fund its purchases using a combination of equity issuance, debt financing, and operational cash flow. Historically, Semler has relied on its ATM equity program to buy bitcoin, depending on its shares trading at a premium to net asset value (NAV).
However, data from Strategy-Tracker shows Semler’s market NAV multiple currently sits at just 0.859x, meaning its market valuation is below the value of its BTC holdings. This could limit its ability to raise new capital at favorable terms.
Investors will be watching closely to see how Semler navigates this challenge. Despite bitcoin recently soaring past $100,000, Semler’s stock is down nearly 40% year-to-date.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin remains stuck below $105,000, facing resistance at $105,150. Institutional accumulation persists, but short-term bearish momentum and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on sentiment.
- ETH: Ethereum is holding above $2,490 after a high-volume sell-off breached key levels. Price is consolidating in a tight band, with a potential breakout possible if resistance at $2,510 is cleared.
- Gold: Gold hovered near $3,366 on Thursday, mostly unchanged as Middle East tensions balanced the Fed’s hawkish tone. Platinum retreated after hitting a nearly 10-year high. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher on Friday, as Asia-Pacific markets largely advanced ahead of China’s loan prime rate decision and amid continued Israel-Iran tensions.
