Crypto Market Slips as Traders Watch for Breakout in Seasonally Strong Second Half
Bitcoin hovered near $104,700 during Asia’s trading session Thursday, dipping 1.2% in 24 hours as crypto markets pulled back amid hawkish macro signals, quiet trading activity, and global trade worries. Ether followed suit, trading just below $2,860 after slipping 1.8% on the day.
This muted performance follows Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers left interest rates unchanged but maintained a vigilant stance toward inflation risks.
A Typical Seasonal Slowdown
Historically, crypto markets often see a slowdown between June and July. This year, front-end implied volatility for bitcoin has dropped below 40%, erasing the premium fueled by geopolitical tension, Singapore-based QCP Capital reported on Thursday.
Derivatives markets confirm the lull: open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts has remained flat, while options markets show puts trading at a premium over calls—a signal that traders are hedging against short-term downside risk.
Yet some analysts see the technical backdrop as still supportive of future gains. “There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” said Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, in a note to CoinDesk. “BTC continues to consolidate bullishly, and a move through recent highs could set up a run toward $145,000.”
Kruger noted that while ether is still below its 2021 highs, momentum is gathering. “Clearing $2,900 could bring $3,400 into play,” he added.
Regulatory Developments Offer Optimism
A rare bright spot for crypto markets came with the U.S. Senate’s recent passage of a stablecoin regulation framework, signaling growing support for crypto-friendly policy. “Globally, we’re seeing continued progress that promises greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption,” Kruger said.
Short-Term Uncertainty, Long-Term Potential
Despite longer-term optimism, caution remains in the near term. Month-end options expirations, systematic portfolio rebalancing, and the lack of major new catalysts could keep BTC trading within a $102,000–$108,000 range for now.
Still, some desks are already turning their attention to the second half of the year—a period that has historically brought stronger crypto market performance. “The worst may be behind us,” Kruger said. “And the next leg up could catch many off guard.”
