Most Spot Crypto ETFs Poised for SEC Approval, Bloomberg Analysts Say — Except SUI
21 June 2025
The outlook for spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is growing increasingly positive, with Bloomberg analysts predicting high chances of approval for nearly all pending applications—except for one notable outlier, SUI.
James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears far more receptive to crypto ETFs than in previous years.
“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart posted on X, citing encouraging engagement between the SEC and fund issuers as a sign of progress.
Among the tokens seeing strong prospects are Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano, all of which Bloomberg now estimates have at least a 90% chance of ETF approval. The analysts point to recent activity such as a wave of 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests from the SEC, signaling the regulator is actively working with issuers rather than dismissing proposals outright.
However, SUI remains the exception. The proposed ETF for SUI, filed exclusively by Canary, faces just a 60% chance of approval. The lower odds stem from the lack of regulated futures for SUI and lingering regulatory uncertainty surrounding the asset.
Optimism also runs high on prediction platforms. Bettors on Polymarket currently assign a 98% probability to an XRP ETF being approved this year, a 91% chance for a Solana ETF, and a 71% likelihood for Dogecoin.
