Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade steadily above the $100,000 mark, showing resilience even as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East.
Investor focus has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, following U.S. airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
On the prediction platform Polymarket, traders quickly adjusted their bets, driving the cost of “Yes” shares in the market “Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30?” to 40 cents, indicating a 40% probability. That’s a significant leap from just 14% the day before. Odds for a closure happening before the end of the year also jumped to 52%, up from 33% on Saturday.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for around 20% of global oil use, according to the Middle East Forum Observer. Any disruption could trigger severe volatility in energy markets.
Economists at JPMorgan warn that a closure could propel crude prices to $120–$130 per barrel, potentially sparking stagflation—a scenario where inflation surges while economic growth slows, posing significant threats to both traditional and crypto markets.
Despite the mounting geopolitical uncertainty, crypto prices remained stable over the weekend. Bitcoin has held firm above $100,000, according to CoinDesk data.
Tensions reached new heights after former President Donald Trump confirmed Saturday that U.S. forces had carried out airstrikes, destroying three of Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities. Trump framed the strikes as a move to force “the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.”
