Bitcoin Steadies Above $100K as Oil Retreats Despite Iran Tensions
Markets showed resilience on Monday, with bitcoin holding key support levels and oil prices easing, as fears of broader Middle East conflict moderated after the weekend’s U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Geopolitical concerns spiked after the U.S. confirmed airstrikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for global oil shipments. Despite the initial panic, traders appear to be betting that escalation will be limited.
Oil Loses Momentum After Early Gains
Oil prices initially jumped nearly 3% over concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. However, much of those gains have since evaporated. Brent crude now trades around $77 per barrel, up only 1.4% after hitting a five-month high of $77.79 earlier in the day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly rose to $78.58 before slipping back to $76.75, according to TradingView.
Analysts say the muted oil response suggests markets doubt Iran will follow through on threats that could provoke wider conflict or alienate major partners like China.
“Price action this morning suggests that the market doesn’t believe (at least not yet) that flows through Hormuz will be blocked,” ING analysts wrote in a Monday note. “With over 80% of oil from Hormuz destined for Asia, Iran would risk alienating China and other allies.”
Energy expert Anas Alhajji echoed this sentiment, calling Iran’s threats political theater repeated many times since the 1980s. He noted that closing the strait would require seizing Omani waters, potentially triggering a regional war and harming Iran’s own interests more than its adversaries.
Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Global Uncertainty
Bitcoin dipped below $98,000 on Sunday as geopolitical fears rattled markets. However, the cryptocurrency rebounded above $101,000 as selling pressure eased.
During Sunday’s drop, short-term BTC put options on Deribit traded at an 8–10% volatility premium over calls, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. But those fears appear to have receded with oil prices cooling.
Technically, bitcoin’s horizontal support around $100,430 held firm through the weekend. A similar bounce from that level occurred on June 5, sparking a swift rally to $110,000. If oil remains stable, crypto markets could avoid the stagflation scenario that many feared—a mix of surging oil prices and economic slowdown.
Still, analysts warn that a decisive break below $100,000 could shift focus to the next support area near $95,900, where the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge.
