ARK Invest Sees Record Bitcoin Long-Term Holding as Market Loses Steam
Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are holding more of the supply than ever before, even as the pace of new investment into the market slows, according to ARK Invest’s latest monthly report for June.
Despite posting a 2.55% gain in June, bitcoin failed to surpass its May high of $112,000, signaling a market stuck in consolidation, ARK noted.
One of the report’s most significant findings is that long-term holders now possess about 74% of all bitcoin in circulation—a level not reached in 15 years. This suggests enduring confidence among seasoned investors, though enthusiasm among new market participants appears to be fading.
Supporting that view, ARK highlighted a drop in on-chain capital flows in the second quarter, as measured by its Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) momentum indicator. The slowdown points to reduced activity and a cautious mood among traders.
On the macroeconomic side, the report called attention to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, tracked by the Federal Reserve’s Nominal Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index. This resilience challenges the widespread narrative of dollar debasement, a theme that has often been used to justify bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.
Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. continues to cool, raising questions about bitcoin’s role as a hedge. However, ARK sees a silver lining: lower inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which might reignite interest in riskier assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The report also flags warning signs in the housing market. ARK observed a widening gap between high homeowner price expectations and declining home sales, hinting at growing consumer caution and potential pressure on broader economic growth.
