A major derivatives trade on Monday signaled confidence in Bitcoin’s continued recovery into year-end—though not in a move to fresh all-time highs.
Bitcoin BTC$90,772.41 has climbed back to about $88,000 after last week’s drop toward $80,000, supported in part by rising expectations for a December 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. But spot ETFs have yet to mirror the improving sentiment: the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $151 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue.
Even so, one block trader unveiled a bullish but measured position, initiating a 20,000-BTC call condor—a notional value of $1.76 billion—designed to benefit from Bitcoin pushing above $100,000 before the year ends.
Deribit described the structure on X: “Trader lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25 … expecting BTC to reach the $100–$118k zone, not explode past it.”
The four-legged strategy involves buying calls at $100K and $118K, and selling calls at $106K and $112K, creating a payout that peaks if Bitcoin ends the year between $106K and $112K. The trade signals confidence in additional upside, while also anticipating gains will remain constrained. The payoff is capped above $118K, suggesting the trader does not expect Bitcoin to challenge record territory near $126,000.
Block trades like this—large, privately negotiated transactions executed away from the open market—are commonly used by institutional players seeking to avoid slippage while deploying sizable positions. Monday’s bet highlights how sophisticated traders are increasingly targeting not just Bitcoin’s direction, but the extent of its potential rally.
