Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to gain traction below $112,000 despite Friday’s U.S. jobs report showing just 22,000 new positions in August — far below expectations of 75,000 — heightening speculation of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut.
Jobs Report Shock
The report also revised June and July job growth downward by 21,000, with June posting a net loss of 13,000 positions. Manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services reported losses, while health services and leisure & hospitality saw gains.
Analysts described the figures as signaling possible labor market weakness. Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, highlighted that annual benchmark revisions due next week could further reduce historical job growth by 500,000 to 1 million, fueling additional Fed rate-cut expectations.
Bitcoin Price Action
BTC briefly rallied above $113,300 on hopes of easier monetary policy and lower Treasury yields but quickly fell back below $111,982, confirming the late August double-top breakdown. The 200-day simple moving average at $101,700 is the first major support.
The double-top pattern — a bearish reversal formed when a price peaks twice and fails to surpass the first high — signals potential for further downside, echoing February’s pattern, which led to a multi-week sell-off to roughly $75,000.
Treasury Yields & Inflation
Treasury yields may remain volatile around the anticipated Fed cuts. While lower yields could initially support BTC, inflationary pressures and ongoing fiscal spending may drive yields higher over time.
Investors are also eyeing August CPI data due next week. Core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, keeping annual growth at 3.1%, while headline CPI is expected at 2.9% year-over-year — a reminder that inflation remains a key factor for monetary policy and crypto markets.
