Coinbase is set to report first-quarter earnings Thursday, and expectations are muted.
Four major firms — Barclays, JPMorgan, Compass Point, and Oppenheimer — have trimmed forecasts, citing slumping crypto volumes and weak retail activity. Consensus sees EPS falling to $1.93 from $2.26 last quarter, and revenue sliding to $2.1 billion from $2.27 billion.
Retail volume is the pressure point. Barclays sees just $69 billion in Q1 retail trades, far below the $79.8 billion Wall Street expected. Compass Point has gone further, cutting Coinbase to “Sell” and warning that decentralized exchanges are pulling away crypto hobbyists.
Trading volume fell 10% during the quarter. Still, USDC revenues — buoyed by a 42% jump in stablecoin market cap — could help cushion the blow. Barclays estimates $304 million in stablecoin-related revenue alone.
Coinbase’s market share in U.S. spot trading grew, but analysts say that won’t be enough if everyday traders stay on the sidelines.
COIN is down 23% year-to-date, trading at $198.06. Bitcoin, by contrast, is up nearly 4%, currently at $97,023.
