Bitcoin on Track for $124K by Year-End, Says ARK Invest Analyst
After falling back to $95,000 following a near-break of the $100,000 threshold, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for another rally, according to David Puell, a research associate at ARK Invest. Speaking with CoinDesk, Puell offered an optimistic outlook, describing the current dip as a temporary breather in a longer-term bull market.
“We foresee Bitcoin reaching $104,000 to $124,000 by the end of the year,” Puell stated. He emphasized that while these are projections rather than direct investment advice, the cryptocurrency’s recent price trends support the firm’s analysis.
Assessing Bitcoin’s Current Phase
Puell’s prediction is based on Bitcoin’s historical bull market patterns, often referred to as seasonality, along with on-chain metrics that provide insights into market activity and investor sentiment. “If we measure the journey from bottom to top, I’d say we’re about 55% to 65% of the way through the current bull market,” Puell said.
This analysis suggests a potential cycle peak in the range of $126,000 to $134,000, though Puell noted these targets could shift higher if the market’s upward momentum intensifies.
Slower Gains, Bigger Picture
Puell acknowledged that Bitcoin’s growth appears to be slowing as the asset matures. A peak of $134,000 would represent a doubling from its 2021 all-time high of $69,000, a less dramatic increase compared to previous cycles, such as the threefold growth from 2017 to 2021.
“This pattern of diminishing returns aligns with Bitcoin’s transition to a more stable and established asset,” Puell said. However, he added that more data is needed to definitively confirm this trend.
Eyes on the Long-Term Horizon
While short-term growth may be moderating, ARK Invest remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Earlier this year, CEO Cathie Wood projected a possible valuation of $1 million to $1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2030, with a base case of $650,000.
Puell highlighted the impact of external factors, such as Federal Reserve policy, SEC decisions, and global adoption of Bitcoin. He also pointed to the potential for nations to include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves, describing this as “a revolutionary shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics.”
Preparing for a Downturn
Despite the optimism, Puell cautioned that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature means a bear market is inevitable. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced sharp corrections, losing up to 70% of its value from all-time highs during previous cycles.
“The eventual bottom will depend on how high Bitcoin climbs before this bull market ends,” Puell explained, emphasizing the importance of understanding the asset’s inherent volatility.
As Bitcoin eyes new milestones, ARK Invest’s projections paint a picture of both significant near-term potential and the inevitable risks tied to its cyclical nature, keeping investors on their toes in a volatile but promising market.
