Ark Invest said growing institutional adoption of bitcoin and the rapid expansion of asset tokenization are pushing digital assets toward scale, with the sector potentially reaching tens of trillions of dollars by the end of the decade.
In its Big Ideas 2026 report, the asset manager argued that digital assets are moving beyond their speculative roots as blockchain technology, clearer regulation and institutional participation converge to reshape global financial markets.
Ark framed the shift as structural rather than incremental, saying bitcoin, smart contract platforms and tokenized real-world assets are transitioning from experimentation to large-scale adoption faster than many investors expect.
The firm highlighted bitcoin’s emergence as a new institutional asset class. It said U.S. exchange-traded funds and public companies increased their combined bitcoin holdings to roughly 12% of total supply in 2025, up from less than 9% a year earlier. Over the same period, bitcoin delivered stronger risk-adjusted returns than most major cryptocurrencies and broader crypto indexes, while drawdowns from all-time highs became less severe — reinforcing its role as a maturing store of value.
Looking ahead, Ark expects bitcoin to remain the dominant digital asset by market capitalization. The firm estimated that bitcoin and smart contract networks together could grow at an annualized rate of around 60% to reach roughly $28 trillion by 2030, with bitcoin accounting for about 70% of that total.
Ark projected bitcoin’s market value could rise from about $2 trillion today to roughly $16 trillion by the end of the decade, driven by its positioning as “digital gold” and expanding institutional participation.
The report also pointed to stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets as key drivers of broader adoption. Ark said increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. has prompted financial institutions to revisit stablecoin issuance and tokenization strategies, pushing stablecoin transaction volumes to levels that rival or exceed those of major legacy payment networks.
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries, commodities and, eventually, equities were cited as early indicators of a broader shift of financial assets onto public blockchains. While the market for tokenized assets remains relatively small today, Ark estimated it could exceed $11 trillion by 2030 as sovereign debt, bank deposits and public equities increasingly move on-chain.
Ark added that decentralized finance platforms and crypto-native issuers are already closing the gap with traditional fintech firms in areas such as assets under management, revenue efficiency and institutional relevance.
Taken together, the firm said these trends point to a future in which public blockchains serve as core infrastructure for money, contracts and ownership at global scale. While adoption is unlikely to be linear, Ark said investors and institutions that recognize the transition early may be better positioned as digital assets become more deeply embedded in the financial system.
