Bitcoin has climbed back toward $112,958 after dropping below $108,800 earlier this week, aided by a new S&P 500 record high and strong Nvidia earnings. The recovery, however, faces hurdles from on-chain resistance levels.
On-Chain Resistance
Analytics firm Glassnode reports that BTC is still trading under the cost basis of both 1-month ($115.6K) and 3-month ($113.6K) holders. That means many recent buyers remain underwater and may look to sell into strength, creating resistance near those levels.
Mixed Market Setup
Spot flows appear neutral, with futures leaning bearish and funding rates around 0.01% signaling fragile positioning. BRN’s Timothy Misir said a breakout above $112.4K with volume could open upside toward $114K–$116K, though momentum remains tentative.
Institutional demand continues to provide support. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $81M of inflows in the past day, while ether ETFs drew $307M. Corporates are also stepping in: Metaplanet announced plans to raise $881M to purchase $837M worth of BTC this fall, adding to its 18,991 BTC holdings. Altogether, ETFs, corporates, and governments are soaking up about 3,600 BTC daily — four times miner supply.
Key Support Risks
If bitcoin turns lower, $107K is the major support to watch, aligning with the six-month cost basis. A sustained drop beneath that level could erode confidence and accelerate downside momentum, Glassnode warned.
Outlook
While equities and institutional flows have boosted sentiment, short-term holders remain a headwind near $113.6K. A decisive move above that threshold may be needed before bulls can regain control of the trend.
