U.S. storm drives bitcoin hashrate drop, reviving bullish Hash Ribbon signal
A weekend storm in the U.S. disrupted bitcoin (BTC $89,322.67) mining, pushing up costs and forcing miners to reduce computing power. The slowdown has drawn attention to the Hash Ribbon indicator, a historically bullish on-chain metric that signals potential buying opportunities during periods of miner capitulation.
The Hash Ribbon tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of bitcoin’s hashrate on Glassnode. Miner capitulation is flagged when the short-term average falls below the long-term average, shown in light red. The capitulation phase is considered over once the 30-day average rises above the 60-day, represented by dark red. Historically, when this recovery aligns with a shift in price momentum from negative to positive (dark red to white), it has marked long-term buying opportunities.
The storm caused the network hashrate to drop roughly 20%, from about 1.2 zettahash per second (ZH/s) to around 950 exahashes per second (EH/s). The next difficulty adjustment is expected to fall roughly 17%, the largest since July 2021, when China banned bitcoin mining.
The Hash Ribbon last indicated capitulation in late November, coinciding with bitcoin’s low near $80,000. Today, BTC trades around $88,000. Similar patterns have preceded major rallies: in mid-2024, bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 after a Hash Ribbon capitulation before climbing to $100,000 by January 2025. During the 2022 FTX collapse, BTC fell to about $15,000 amid miner capitulation before rebounding to roughly $22,000 once the indicator normalized.
The key question for traders now is whether history will repeat. If hashrate and the Hash Ribbon recover, bitcoin could enter a renewed expansionary phase, presenting a potential long-term buying opportunity.
