Bitcoin Holds $115K Amid Diverging Views on Market Recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) traded slightly above $115,000 in Asia Tuesday morning, retreating modestly after a strong start to the week. The pullback follows a surge of U.S. spot ETF inflows and optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates next week, raising questions about whether the rebound is built on solid fundamentals or fragile momentum after last week’s CPI-driven volatility.
Analysts are divided. Glassnode’s weekly report cautions that, while ETF inflows jumped nearly 200% last week and futures open interest increased, the underlying spot market remains weak.
Glassnode highlights shallow buying conviction, softening funding rates, and rising profit-taking, with more than 92% of BTC supply in profit. Options traders have also reduced downside hedges, narrowing volatility spreads—a setup that could leave BTC exposed if risk sentiment returns. In short, ETFs and futures are propping up the rally, but without stronger spot-market demand, Bitcoin remains vulnerable.
Conversely, Singapore-based QCP maintains a bullish view. They say crypto is “back on track” following CPI data that confirmed tariff-driven inflation without major surprises. The desk points to five consecutive days of sizable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s largest inflows in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after delays in other ETFs.
Traders are interpreting regulatory postponements as procedural rather than restrictive. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115K as a springboard for rotation into higher-beta assets.
The $115K–$116K range has become a market battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism, while QCP emphasizes momentum. Near-term direction may hinge on whether ETF inflows continue to offset profit-taking in the coming weeks.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Consolidating near $115K, supported by institutional ETF demand ahead of anticipated Fed policy moves.
- ETH: Trading around $4,500, buoyed by institutional inflows, exchange outflows, and positive technical signals.
- Gold: Holding near record highs, underpinned by safe-haven demand and Fed rate cut expectations, tempered by profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Nikkei 225: Surpassed 45,000 Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains on upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and TikTok divestment plans.
- S&P 500: Rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 Monday, lifted by trade optimism and anticipation of the Fed meeting.
