Asia Morning Briefing: CZ’s Pardon Lifts Hopes for SBF’s Second Chance
A pardon for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried remains unlikely — but not impossible. Betting markets are growing more optimistic after former President Donald Trump wiped Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s criminal record clean.
Prediction Markets React
Traders on Polymarket lifted the odds of a Bankman-Fried pardon by five percentage points to 12%, while Kalshi saw a larger increase, with a similar contract rising nine points to 16%. The bump followed Trump’s Thursday-evening decision to pardon CZ, sparking speculation that Bankman-Fried could be next in line for clemency.
Earlier this year, the former FTX chief launched a media rehabilitation campaign, appearing on Tucker Carlson’s podcast and leaning into conservative narratives that he was punished for supporting Republicans. Behind the scenes, his parents have been lobbying Trump’s allies, seeking relief from their son’s 25-year sentence.
Markets Reprice the Odds
Trump’s pardon of CZ blindsided traders, who had long viewed any SBF clemency as remote. For most of the contract’s life, odds hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling deep skepticism toward a political rescue.
While prediction markets often track real-world outcomes with surprising accuracy, they sometimes miss shocks — and an unexpected SBF pardon could fit that mold. It would be the kind of plot twist that even the writers of The Altruists — Netflix’s upcoming series on FTX’s downfall — might have dismissed as too implausible, right until it happens.
Market Recap
Bitcoin (BTC): Gained 2.7% to roughly $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from midweek losses as risk sentiment improved ahead of the U.S. September inflation data.
Ether (ETH): Hovered around $3,850, with analysts noting signs of a Wyckoff re-accumulation phase. Institutional buying continues to fuel projections of an $8,000–$10,000 price target later this cycle.
Gold: Traded near $4,126, up almost 50% this year after breaking above $4,000. Persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, and Fed policy uncertainty underpin prices, though Morgan Stanley cautioned that elevated levels could cool jewelry and reserve buying, even as it raised its 2026 forecast to $4,400.
Nikkei 225: Rose 0.78% on Friday, leading Asia-Pacific markets higher after confirmation of Trump–Xi talks scheduled for next week.
