CryptoQuant data points to signs of seller fatigue as large holders reduce exchange deposits, while traders brace for a closely watched Bank of Japan decision that could ripple through global liquidity conditions.
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The market’s calm extends beyond central bank action. In its latest report, CryptoQuant said exchange inflows have fallen sharply from November highs, with whales pulling back deposits and easing near-term selling pressure. That pullback has allowed bitcoin to settle into a narrow trading band.
CryptoQuant also noted that whales booked more than $600 million in losses when bitcoin first dipped below $100,000, followed by roughly $3.2 billion in cumulative realized losses. Short-term holders have been selling at negative profit margins since mid-November — behavior that typically appears only after sentiment has already capitulated. Historically, that mix has signaled that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
Those dynamics have kept bitcoin anchored around $92,000 despite a series of macro catalysts.
QCP cautioned that stability should not be mistaken for renewed confidence. The trading desk described a market still in a holding pattern, noting that spot ETF inflows have improved only modestly and derivatives positioning remains defensive.
Attention is now shifting to Tokyo, where prediction markets strongly favor a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s December 19 meeting. QCP said the next major catalyst may come from Japan, where long-dated JGB yields are pushing multi-decade highs and policymakers have expressed concern about the pace of the move.
For now, markets remain steady, with the near-term path likely to depend on how Japan’s policy decision influences global risk appetite.
Market movement
- BTC: Bitcoin traded quietly between $91,000 and $92,000, showing little reaction to the Fed’s rate cut as subdued onchain flows kept volatility in check.
- ETH: Ether mirrored the muted tone, holding near $3,270 without a clear trigger to break out of its recent range.
- Gold: Gold advanced after the Fed’s cut despite lingering uncertainty around next year’s policy path, while silver hit a record on strong industrial demand and tight supply.
- Nikkei 225: Most Asia-Pacific equities moved higher following the Fed’s third rate cut of the year, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave back early gains to slip 0.11%.
