BTC Holds Near $119K as U.S. Demand Surges, QCP Flags Market Risks
Bitcoin (BTC) was hovering around $119,500 on Monday, just shy of its recent record high above $120,000, amid booming institutional interest—but not all regions are on the same page.
Data from CoinShares shows that U.S.-listed crypto investment products attracted a staggering $3.74 billion in inflows last week. In stark contrast, Germany witnessed outflows totaling $85.7 million, highlighting a growing divergence in global sentiment toward digital assets.
A significant shift in the U.S. is seen in Vanguard’s stance on crypto. Despite previously calling bitcoin an “immature asset class,” the $10 trillion asset manager has become the largest shareholder of MicroStrategy (MSTR)—effectively making it the biggest indirect bitcoin holder in traditional finance, according to a recent note from Presto Research.
Institutional enthusiasm remains solid, with QCP Capital reporting over $2 billion in net inflows into spot BTC ETFs just last week.
Still, there are warning signs emerging in the derivatives market. Leverage is rising rapidly, with funding rates for BTC perpetual futures approaching 30% and open interest climbing above $43 billion—the highest level since bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark in January. QCP warns this aggressive positioning echoes conditions before February’s sudden $2 billion liquidation event, cautioning that “froth is building.”
Bitcoin Leaves Luxury Watches Behind
So far in 2025, bitcoin has rallied 27.87%, including a 13.22% gain in the past month. That performance leaves luxury watches trailing, with the high-end timepiece market rising only 4.5% in Q2, per a joint report from Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts.
The strongest gains in watches were confined to iconic models like the Daytona, Nautilus, and Royal Oak, while brands such as Panerai, Breitling, and IWC underperformed. Watches priced under $5,000 continue to suffer from elevated inventories and sluggish turnover.
“Price recovery remains narrow and concentrated,” the report noted, fueled by “renewed interest from high-end collectors and improved global risk appetite.”
Both bitcoin and luxury watches historically benefit from expansive monetary policies and periods of wealth creation. Yet speculative capital has shifted unevenly. Bitcoin is increasingly favored as a macro-driven, high-beta asset, thanks to institutional inflows and round-the-clock trading.
The correlation between BTC and luxury watches, which both soared during the pandemic-era liquidity boom, faded in late 2023 after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched. Since then, bitcoin has evolved into a macro-sensitive asset embraced by institutions, while luxury watches have reverted to being primarily luxury fashion statements.
Market Moves
- BTC: Bitcoin briefly flirted with the $123,000 mark before easing back. Crypto stocks posted modest gains, and analysts believe the market still has room to run, with some projecting BTC’s $2.5 trillion market cap could eventually narrow the gap with gold’s $22 trillion valuation.
- ETH: Ether surged past $3,079 in early Monday trading amid robust volume but later retreated to around $3,011. The pullback formed a classic breakout-and-retest pattern while maintaining support above the key $3,000 level.
- Gold: Gold dipped 0.1% after touching a three-week high as traders reacted to renewed tariff threats from President Trump and awaited fresh U.S. economic data. Silver, meanwhile, soared to its highest price since September 2011.
- Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened mixed on Tuesday, as investors largely looked past Trump’s latest tariff maneuvers and focused on upcoming economic reports from China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded flat.
- S&P 500: RBC Capital Markets lifted its 2025 target for the S&P 500 to 6,250 from 5,730. However, unlike Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, RBC sees limited upside from current levels, with the index already above 6,280 as of July 11.
