Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has scaled back his Bitcoin forecasts, describing the market’s current state as a “cold breeze” rather than a full-blown “crypto winter.” In a Tuesday research note, the bank’s global head of digital assets lowered his year-end BTC target to $100,000 and delayed the previously expected $500,000 milestone from 2028 to 2030.
“Recent price action in bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least,” Kendrick wrote in the note, titled ‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.’
The downgrade is largely driven by steep declines in bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Kendrick’s prior bullish outlook assumed ongoing BTC accumulation by these firms, but many now trade below the value of the bitcoin on their balance sheets, limiting their capacity to fund new purchases.
“We expect consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” he added.
With DAT activity subdued, the bitcoin bull case now depends mainly on ETF inflows. Kendrick revised his price forecasts as follows:
- 2025: $100,000 (from $200,000)
- 2026: $150,000 (from $300,000)
- 2027: $225,000 (from $400,000)
- 2028: $300,000 (from $500,000)
The $500,000 target is now anticipated no earlier than 2030. Kendrick noted that institutional adoption often moves slowly due to committee processes, but these channels could eventually drive the next major wave of bitcoin demand.
