Barclays expects 2026 to be a subdued year for crypto as investor enthusiasm wanes and spot trading volumes cool.
In its year-end report, the bank highlighted a challenging backdrop for exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), citing a lack of structural growth drivers and few catalysts to reignite retail interest. “Spot crypto trading volumes […] appear to be trending towards a down-year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what might reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Historically, crypto markets have surged around major events, such as product launches, policy announcements, or political shifts—including March 2024 spot bitcoin ETF inflows and the pro-crypto U.S. presidential win in November. Without similar triggers, Barclays sees limited near-term growth.
Regulatory clarity could provide some relief. The proposed CLARITY Act aims to define which digital assets are commodities or securities and assign oversight between the SEC and CFTC, potentially easing operational uncertainty and enabling tokenized product launches.
Coinbase is expanding into derivatives and tokenized equities, but headwinds from falling spot volumes and rising costs have led Barclays to lower its COIN price target to $291. Early-stage tokenization initiatives by firms like BlackRock (BLK) and Robinhood are unlikely to materially affect 2026 earnings.
Overall, 2026 may be a transitional year for crypto, with firms focusing on long-term strategies amid a muted market.
